Poll: M97 going down; Richardson leads
Published 8:00 am Tuesday, November 1, 2016
A corporate sales tax measure is continuing to lose support as the Nov. 8 general election approaches, according to a new poll commissioned by FOX-12.
The poll also shows Kate Brown is on track to be elected Oregon governor, so the likely defeat of the Measure 97 corporate tax increase means she’ll face a big state budget deficit next year.
The poll, conducted by Portland’s DHM Research, shows that 53 percent of voters oppose Measure 97, while just 40 percent now support it. The level of support had been as high as 60 percent in a DHM poll conducted in September, but it had declined to 45 percent by early October.
Measure 97 would impose a 2.5 percent tax on corporations with more than $25 million a year in Oregon sales. It would raise $6 billion per biennial budget cycle. Oregon is facing a $1.4 billion deficit in the next two-year budget.
The fight over the corporate sale tax measure already has broken state campaign spending records. With more than a week to go before Election Day, supporters had reported raising over $13 million this year, mostly from public employee unions. Opponents had raised over $25 million, primarily from corporations. The fund-raising record was previously set during the fight over GMO labeling in 2014, when opponents and proponents raised a combined $29 million.
In another closely watched race, the poll shows Republican Dennis Richardson has an opportunity to break the streak of Democratic dominance in statewide elections dating back to 2002 by defeating Brad Avakian for secretary of state. According to the poll, Richardson leads Avakian by a margin of 32 percent to 27 percent. Richardson is favored by nonaffiliated voters by a margin of 30 percent to 22 percent. He also has slightly more support from Democrats than Avakian has from Republicans — 12 percent to 9 percent. More than 40 percent of voters are still undecided, however, meaning the final vote could go either way.
In a more predictable result, the poll shows Democrat Kate Brown has a 9-point lead over Republican Bud Pierce in the governor’s race. No Republican has been elected governor in Oregon since Vic Atiyeh in 1982.
The winner will serve out the remaining two years of former Gov. John Kitzhaber’s term. He resigned amid an ethics scandal in February 2015, and Brown, who was then secretary of state, succeeded him.
Likewise, the poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton in a strong position to defeat Republican Donald Trump in Oregon. In the presidential race, Clinton is leading Trump by a margin of 41 percent to 34 percent, the poll found. Clinton’s 7-point lead is smaller than President Barack Obama’s 12-point victory in 2012 and 16-point victory in 2008.
The poll found 72 percent of Democrats plan to vote for Clinton, compared with 65 percent of Republicans who plan to vote for Trump. Eleven percent of voters are undecided and 3 percent may skip the race.
The poll of 504 Oregon voters was conducted from Oct. 25 through 29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.
To see more detailed findings, visit http://tinyurl.com/hfc3kl3.