COVID-19 spike would have put most of Oregon under former “extreme risk” rating
Published 10:27 am Tuesday, August 3, 2021
- Oregon hospitals are facing a funding gap.
The faster, stronger delta variant of COVID-19 is causing soaring numbers of infections and sickness across Oregon, state statistics revealed Tuesday.
Multnomah County, which includes Portland, reported 1,013 new cases for a two-week period for the first time since the end of April.
Umatilla County had 915 cases per 100,000 people during the same time, by far the most in the state.
Wallowa County reported one out of four COVID-19 tests came back positive.
Lake County was the only one of Oregon’s 36 counties to record a drop in reported cases.
An Oregon Health Authority weekly report using a formula to set risk levels for each county is still published every week.
Under rules in place for much of the past year, this week’s numbers would push 22 counties – likely more – into the the classification of being at “extreme risk” of spreading the COVID-19 virus.
But the once automatic restrictions on business and civic life that were imposed based on various thresholds were scaled back in recent months and abandoned altogether as of June 30.
The statistics come out each Monday in the County COVID-19 Community Spread Report.
Total positive cases over the previous two weeks, positive cases per 100,000 population and the percentage of COVID-19 tests reported positive are listed, along with the previous two periods for comparison. In combinations based on the size, counties were assigned to one of four risk levels.
For months from last fall through early summer, the report’s arrival was followed by an announcement from Gov. Kate Brown with newly revised risk levels. Counties could go up, down or stay the same.
Where a county fell on the four-tiered chart determined what businesses could open, how many customers could shop in a store, the time of last call at bars, and whether a diner could sit down for their meal inside a restaurant, outside – or had to buy takeout.
Infection rates dived after April as a majority of Oregonians started getting vaccinated. With nearly 70% of eligible adults having received at least one shot, Brown on June 30 unshackled the fate of local lives and economies from the impact of the reports.
As Oregon entered July, decisions on public health and any restrictions required to fight COVID-19 were decided by commissioners in each of the 36 counties.
The weekly reports continued to come out, but fell off the public radar since their numbers no longer had any immediate impact.
In early July, Oregon showed a seven-day average of 110 new cases in the whole state – the lowest in over a year.
Vaccines that arrived since December had not been as widely embraced in Oregon as Brown hoped, with daily first doses falling from a high of over 50,000 on a few days in April to an average of just over 5,000 per day in mid-July.
But the Oregon Health Authority, backed by advice from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, were confident of no return to the dark days of winter, when average daily cases topped out at 1,515.
The report released Tuesday based on the old risk level formula shows Oregon is back to wintery numbers of infections, with hospitals again stretched to their limits.
But just as the state opened up, the delta variant arrived in force. In areas of the state with large numbers of unvaccinated people , it wreaked immediate havoc.
A saving grace is any rise in deaths is forecast to be shorter and shallower than previous waves because of the high vaccination level of the elderly and those with medical conditions.
But the delta variant has produced a staggeringly steep rise in cases, particularly in parts of eastern and southwestern Oregon were vaccination rates have been low.
OHA is investigating the role of the Whisky Fest country music concert in Pendleton last month that drew 12,000 and has led to reports of dozens of positive COVID-19 cases, primarily in Umatilla County.
The specter of a super spreader event now shadows plans for the Umatilla County Fair, which is scheduled for Aug. 11-14. Dwarfing all other events is the Pendleton Round-Up, beginning Sept. 11, which has drawn up to 50,000 people from across the United States.
The OHA investigation into the Whisky Fest has brought tensions between state and local officials to the surface.
OHA reports to Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat who is an advocated of vaccination.
In the 36 counties, public health officials report to county commissioners. The commissioners are elected by the local community. Many are Republican areas where vaccine hesitancy – even what a top OHA official called “vaccine belligerence” is common.
Both public health officials and commissioners in these areas doubt the public will back – or even obey – any mandatory order to wear masks to reduce infection.
Umatilla County Public Health Director Joe Fiumara told the East Oregonian newspaper this week said that just as COVID-19 cases rose during the Whisky Fest, they are likely to rise again with the county fair.
“I think if you’re trying to reduce cases, I think canceling would be a way to do that,” Fiumara said. “And I think it would be an effective way to prevent additional spread.”
But Fiumara said he would not formally recommend cutbacks or closing the event because of the backlash that would ensue.
“I’m not sure all the fallout from canceling it would be worthwhile. I think there would be a lot of pushback,” he said.
For her part, Brown and her administration have put the focus back on counties, many of which were clamoring for 18 months for more local control.
While other states and cities are pushing for sweeping mandatory mask rules, Oregon’s remains just a recommendation.
Brown has taken issued an order that workers and visitors to state buildings must wear masks.
She also has OHA and education officials working on an order requiring masks in schools, as recommended by the CDC.
The move would shelve an earlier plan to let school districts decide on the best rules for each community.
Brown got a taste of the blowback such a plan would cause in recent days as parents who oppose mandatory masking statewide have filled school board meetings demanding non-compliance.
Instead of waiting and worrying about the state stepping in to impose restrictions, Brown and OHA say it is time for locals to lead science-based decisions that are best for public health.
“While we have learned not to rule anything out, we also know that locally-driven response efforts are most effective at this stage in the pandemic to reach unvaccinated Oregonians,” said Brown spokesman Charles Boyle on Tuesday.
Boyle said nothing is stopping locals from acting — and the state is ready to help with materials such as vaccines and public health workers — to make any action a success.
“Counties, cities, and employers also have the ability to institute their own safety measures and requirements, and we expect local leaders in areas most impacted by COVID-19 to take action,” Boyle said.
