The impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 may not be as severe as originally feared, but a full picture of won’t be known until at least next week. federal and state researchers said Thursday.

A recent forecast from the Oregon Health & Science university showed the overall pace of the summer delta spike continues to drop, though recent upticks in numbers are troublesome.

The focus on omicron comes as the delta variant that has dominated new infections since the summer is showing a resurgence in some areas following the Thanksgiving holiday.

Though 200 million of 333 million Americans were vaccinated as of this week, the number of new infections nationwide jumped from 95,000 per day on Nov. 22 to just under 120,000 per day this week.

Hospitalizations are up 25% with the sharpest increases and biggest jump in hospitalizaitons hitting New England the Upper Midwest.

The same trend has not shown up in Oregon, but researchers will monitor cases from Thanksgiving and follow-up during what is starting to look like a December holiday season with travel at pre-pandemic levels.

Omicron faster, but milder – maybe

The state forecast comes as federal health officials gave a mixed review to their first study of the omicron variant.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Wednesday that initial studies of the first 40 cases of omicron in the United States showed that 75% of the cases were in people who were vaccinated.

But only one case has resulted in hospitalization, while others reported cough, fatigue and congestion that was uncomfortable but manageable from home. 

OHA’s COVID-19 Weekly Report  shows an increase in daily cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

OHA reported 6,435 new cases of COVID-19 during the week of Monday, Nov. 29, through Sunday, Dec. 5. That is a 50% increase from the previous week. The rise is likely a rebound from Thanksgiving weekend, which saw a significant reduction in reported tests. 

The overall incidence of reported COVID-19 in Oregon varied by county vaccination rate but continues to be lowest in the five counties where the vaccination rates were more than 70%. 

There were 134,705 tests for COVID-19 for the week of Nov. 28 through Dec. 4. The percentage of positive tests rose slightly to 5.9%, up from 5.6% the previous week. 

There were 362 new COVID-19 hospitalizations, up from 226 last week. This also likely reflects a rebound in reporting after Thanksgiving weekend. 

There were 126 reported COVID-19-related deaths, one more than the 125 reported the previous week. 

Three good – but four better?

Vaccine maker Pfizer sent mixed messages last week, with company officials announcing on Wednesday that the third booster shot of vaccine created 25 times the antibodies in studies of patients who had received two shots.

The additional vaccine is likely good enough to knock down the new omicron variant or at very least mute its most severe effects that lead to hospitalization and death.

Pfizer had said earlier that a fourth shot would like be needed about one year after the third-dose booster shots.

But Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the a quicker schedule for a fourth inoculation may be needed as information comes in about omicron’s ability to get around  protective antibodies generated by the first three shots. 

The Oregonian and Associated Press contributed to this report