Steep climb for Omicron continued through holidays

Published 12:36 pm Monday, January 3, 2022

The omicron variant is driving a skyrocketing number of new COVID-19 cases, with hospitalizations in Oregon nearing 500 per day.

There were 9,701 new cases in the state for the period from Friday to Sunday, according to a report Monday by the Oregon Health Authority.

Hospitalization rose sharply, with 498 COVID-19 patients in hospitals on Monday, up 36 from Sunday. The total includes 104 in intensive care units, up 8 from Sunday.

The percentage of positive tests rose to 18.2% from 15.5%.

A New York Times survey of COVID-19 statistics from state and local health agencies showed Oregon had a daily average of 36 cases per 100,000 residents., ranking 46th lowest of the 50 states. Five states report an average of more than 200 cases per 100,000 people, with New York topping the list at an average of 318 cases. Cases have risen 204% over the past two weeks, with Oregon reporting a 110% increase over the 14 days. Florida reported a 765% rise, with Alabama, Louisiana and Georgia reporting more than a 700% increase in new infection rates.

Deschutes County continues to have the highest per capita rate of new infections, averaging about 80 per day over the past week. Umatilla County has the highest rate of infection, with a 375% rise in cases over the past two weeks.

Oregon’s COVID-19 resurgence is part of a global wave of new infections driven by the omicron variant that surpassed one million new infections per day at the end of December. The United States reported 405,000 new infections on Monday, a record.

Early research on the omicron variant shows it spreads faster and is more contagious, but also is less fatal than previous versions of COVID-19.

Omicron has also shown to be better at evading protection by vaccines and prior exposure to COVID-19. About 34% of new infections are in people who have received at least two shots of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine. The Centers for Disease Control recommends vaccinated people get a booster shot.

While breakthrough cases in vaccinated people are more common than with previous variants, those who are vaccinated and had a booster shot are far less likely to suffer severe illness or death. 

Unvaccinated people make up the majority of hospitalizations and deaths, OHA has said.

While each case is less likely to be severe, the rapid contagion of the omicron variant will sicken so many people that it will swamp Oregon’s medical system, according to the latest forecast by the Oregon Health & Science University.

Released on Friday, the report said the current spike will peak around Jan. 31 with over 1,600 people hospitalized. The previous record was 1,178 on Sept. 1, the peak of the delta variant spike.

Omicron is rising incredibly fast and could have a similarly speedy fall. OHSU’s latest forecast estimates hospitalizations will fall to under 50 per day by March 9.

The rapid spread has led to frequent revising of the peak numbers, with OHSU predicting up to 3,000 hospitalizations on Dec. 17, then reducing the number to 1,250 Dec. 23 before estimating 1,650 in last week’s report.

Because of its ability to infect vaccinated people, omicron is leading to sickness, missed work and quarantining of doctors, nurses, ambulance staff and other medical workers. It’s also hit police, firefighters, and teachers.

The University of California and University of Washington are among more than 50 colleges to delay the return of students after the winter holidays, move classes online or both. The University of Oregon in Eugene and Oregon State University’s campuses in Corvallis and Bend will stick with plans to have in-person classes on their campuses, while relying on testing and vaccination requirements to suppress spread of the virus.

While omicron is rapidly becoming the most common version of COVID-19 infections seen by doctors, the more virulent and lethal delta variant still accounts for cases in many parts of the nation. Doctors cannot immediately know which variant is causing the infection in each patient, so they must proceed with the maximum level of safeguards and treatment. The CDC said omicron is swiftly replacing delta and will be near 100% of cases soon, allowing for a change in protocol.

The Food & Drug Administration approved booster shots for children 12 to 15 on Monday. American health officials have not followed the new policy in Israel of giving patients at high risk a fourth booster shot, but are studying the data.

Airlines, hotels, restaurants and other businesses where employees interact with customers are experiencing high levels of positive tests among test and workers needing time off to recover from infection or isolate for five to ten days after a positive test.

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