The Oregon Legislature could impose a sales tax on luxury cars, RVs, electronics, boats, snowmobiles, jewelry, guns, clothing and handbags.

Lawmakers might allow Oregonians to pump their own gas at service stations.

But the Legislature won’t push year-round schooling for Oregon’s K-12 students, although Senate President Peter Courtney said that would help repair the damage that kids suffered during the pandemic. The 35-day legislative session that begins Tuesday in Salem doesn’t allow time for such complex issues. Instead, lawmakers again will put money into boosting summer school programs.

So-called “short” legislative sessions in even-numbered years complement the “long” regular sessions in odd-numbered years, which can under the Oregon Constitution can last up to 160 days.

Despite the pared-down agenda, the pace will be frenetic, the action swift and the outcomes highly uncertain.

During the Associated Press Legislative Preview this week, Senate Republican Leader Tim Knopp of Bend recalled that he was the last person in the state Capitol during the 2020 short session because everyone else in the building got mad and went home.

That’s only a slight exaggeration. The presiding officers – Courtney, a Democrat from Salem, and House Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland, abruptly adjourned the session days before the constitutional deadline because all the Republicans walked out except Knopp in the Senate and Rep. Cheri Helt of Bend in the House.

This year’s prospects are dicey as well. Here are five factors at play:

1. Why are we here?

Oregon’s state government runs on a two-year budget cycle. The Legislature met every other year, often with special sessions in between, until voters in 2010 adopted length-limited annual sessions. The 35-day sessions were to deal with budget issues that cropped up, fix problems in previous legislation and … what?

Republicans consistently contend that the supermajority Democrats usurp the purpose of short sessions by bringing in big issues better handled in long sessions, if at all.

2020’s abiding outrage to Republicans was the Democrats’ reworked carbon cap and trade bill, which had failed the previous year. This year’s dealbreaker could be House Bill 4002 requiring overtime for agricultural workers. House Republican Leader Vikki Breese Iverson of Prineville called it the elephant in the room. Rep. Andrea Salinas of Lake Oswego and other Democrats are resuming their battle for agricultural overtime after that proposal died in the 2021 Legislature.

2. Tensions within government

One of briefest measures, sponsored by Republicans, undoubtedly is dead on arrival in the Democrat-controlled Legislature. House Joint Resolution 201 states: “Pursuant to ORS 401.204, the state of emergency declared by the Governor in Executive Order 20-03 on March 8, 2020, relating to the COVID-19 outbreak in Oregon, is terminated.”

Democrats will back Gov. Kate Brown on this. Yet they’re displeased with her administration in other areas, and not just unemployment and rental assistance payments.

One concern is the state’s perceived lack of progress in mental health care. Legislators put more money into such programs, but they now are unsure whether the money is going where they wanted. Courtney said that raises the question of how far the legislative branch should go in overseeing the executive branch. Legislators’ patience is running out.

3. New faces, no relationships

So many legislators have departed in recent months that lawmakers haven’t met some of their new colleagues. The pandemic curtailed social events, funded by lobbyists and others, where people got to know one another on a casual basis. Meanwhile, health protocols have restricted interactions in the Capitol.

The latest newcomer, Rep.-designate Travis Nelson, D-Portland, will be sworn in a half hour before the 2022 Legislature convenes Tuesday morning. He replaces Kotek.

Virtual committee meetings mean legislators aren’t sitting next to each other, chitchatting before – and sometimes during – meetings. A hallmark of Oregon’s legislature is that D’s and R’s sit next to each other in committees instead of being on separate sides as in Congress.

Meanwhile, four of the key House leaders are starting their first session in their roles: House Speaker-nominee Dan Rayfield, D-Corvallis; House Majority Leader Julie Fahey, D-Eugene; Breese Iverson as Republican leader; and budget committee co-chair Tawna Sanchez, D-Portland.

Such new leadership could mean a fresh start, a less-combative middle and a cooperative ending. Or not.

On the other side of the Capitol, Courtney is serving his final year in the Legislature before retiring. The longest-tenured Senate president in Oregon history, Courtney has been a collaborative, moderating influence while partisan divides have grown and his own Senate Democratic Caucus has moved to the left. How will his role play out in 2022?

4. Election year

As in any session but more so during a campaign year, expect lots of public politicking and backroom dealing that make a legislator look good. Or bad. Lawmakers’ speeches on the Senate and House floors rarely change minds, but they do create clips for political campaigns. Not only are many members running for re-election, but some are going for higher offices such as Congress.

House members cannot fundraise during a session, which helps explain why two legislative combatants have resigned before the session starts. Former Speaker Kotek and former House Republican Leader Christine Drazan of Canby are both running for governor.

Pollsters rank Oregon as likely electing a Democrat for governor this year. But FiveThirtyEight reported on Thursday, “Republicans might even have a shot at their white whale — the Oregon governor’s office, which they lost by just 6 points in 2014 and 2 points in 2010.” 

Oregon’s largest labor union has now endorsed Kotek. SEIU’s influence will mean significant financial and volunteer resources for her campaign. Meanwhile, Drazan’s campaign announced that she is the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to raise more than $1 million for this year’s race.

5. The pandemic

The ever-changing pandemic presents many unknowns. The Legislature has perhaps an extra $2 billion to spend, much of it for one-time investments. Brown wants a half-billion of that set aside to shore against future budget shortfalls.

Issues exacerbated by the pandemic – including housing, employment and health care – already are high on the agenda. “Short sessions were built for this exact moment,” Rayfield said.

Meanwhile, two of Oregon’s favorite prohibitions could go separate ways.

The Legislature has gradually eroded the full ban on self-serve gas. This year it might go all the way. House Bill 4151 has bipartisan backing from several key legislators amid intense support and opposition from the public.

However, the retail sales tax on luxury items, which would finance $750 monthly stipends to low-income Oregonians, likely is dead on arrival. House Bill 4079 has only one sponsor, retiring Rep. Brad Witt, D-Clatskanie.

“Salem’s success at the Legislature in recent years reflects a concerted effort to rebuild Capitol relationships.”