Oregon is continuing a rapid rebound from the omicron variant of COVID-19, with infection rates likely plummeting to lows not seen in a year and severe cases requiring hospitalization falling below 200 per day my early May – six times less than at the omicron peak.

The OHSU report comes as Oregon on Monday will pass the two-year mark since the pandemic hit the state. The Oregon Health Authority reported on Feb. 28, 2020 that a teacher living in Washington County had tested positive for the virus. It came a month after the first case in the U.S. was reported in Washington State and two months after the first case in the world was reported in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019

First case: Wuhan, Dec 31, 2019

First US Case: Washington State Jan 28 2020

First Oregon Case: Washington County, Feb. 28 2020

First US death: Washington State, Feb. 28 (later case found from Feb 4 in socal

First Oregon Death: March 14, 2020 in Multnomah (obit on person is available, so not just a stat)

First Deschutes County death: July 14 – 63 year old man

At one point more than half of deaths in nursing homes

Two years since Covid:First case: Wuhan, China, Dec 31, 2019

First US Case: Washington State Jan 28 2020

First Oregon Case: Washington County, Feb. 28 2020

First US death: Washington State, Feb. 28. Reports of earlier deaths elsewhere have proved iffy on review.

First Deschutes County case: March 11, 2020

First Oregon Death: March 14, 2020 in Multnomah (obit on person is available, so not just a stat)

First Deschutes County death: July 14 – 63 year old man

ction in Washington County on Feb. 28, 2020. It came a month after the first case in the United States was reported in neighboring Washington state. marks the second anniversary of the arrival of 

Early concerns focused on people who had visited Asia and returned to Oregon. In a briefing for state lawmakers, OHA said there was little risk of residents passing the virus on to other residents. 

 The state has gone through six waves of the virus, including the virulent delta variant that peaked on Labor Day 2021 and the super-contagious omicron variant that just peaked.

Deaths have started to decline. In COVID-19 pandemic waves, infections rise, followed by hospitalizations, and deaths. The same sequence occurs with a drop in cases, with deaths the lagging indicator.

There are some cautionary notes in reports this week. Omicron reached Oregon later than other states and the recovery is also slower than much of the rest of the nation.

                                                            U.S.                    Oregon                Rank                             Best                  Worst

Cases per 100,000/trend                     27                       39                      14th                             Maryland            Idaho

Trend past 14 days                                -65%                   -60%                   29th (tied)                    Mississippi          Idaho

Hospitalizations per 100,000:              20                       21                     29th (tied)                     N.H                    W. Virginia

                                                             -43%                   -29%                                                      N.D                    W. Virginia

Deaths per 100,000:                           .63     –               .34                                                          Colorado             Tennessee

Fully-vaccinated                                     65%                    68%                                                       RI, Vermont        Wyoming, Alabama 

Deaths is 27 cases per 100,000 residents and is declining 65% from the caseload 14 days ago. Oregon ranks 14th at 39 cases per 100,000 and a drop of 60% compared to two weeks ago. It’s hospitalization rate of 21 per 100,000 ranks the second highest in the nation, behind only West Virginia.

Oregon is neighbored by Idaho, which has the highest rate of cases among the 50 states, at 91 per 100,000 and a drop of just 11 percent in cases over the past two weeks.  

A key caveat to the good news is that Idaho has the highest rate of cases in the nation, with 

Based on the excess number of deaths compared to pre-pandemic levels, the  Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation at the University of Washington model has higher numbers.

IHME research projects Oregon will have report 7,421 people deaths since the start of the pandemic. Public health statisticians have looked at the number of all deaths above normal and say deaths topped 10,000 in Oregon on Feb. 13 and will reach 11,049 on June 1. 

The United States will report 947,622 death by June 1, IHME says. But the county likely passed one million deaths on January 12 and the true count on June 1 would be 1,125,051 dead.

A lack of post-mortem testing and limited or non-existent infectious disease monitoringin much of the world, the gap between reported and actual deaths is much higher, IHME said. 

Deaths around the globe will officially hit 6,861,982 on June 1. But IHME models show reports are accounting for less than half of COVID-19 deaths. They project the death toll after 30 months of the pandemic – since the first reports in China at the very end of 2019, have resulted in 16,135,012. 

will have died in Oregon by June 1. Taking into account deaths that were not reported as COVID-19 related, IHME says Oregon passed 10,000 deaths on Feb. 13 and will be 11,049 on June 1.

.  Oregons actual total death count will be 11,049