Open Congress seats eyed for GOP flips

The 2022 redistricting drawn by Democrats and approved by the Legislature on a mostly party-line vote was criticized last fall by Republicans as seeking to ensure Democrats would win five of six congressional seats this November.

But the retirement of Oregon’s senior Democratic congressman, the primary upset of the Democratic incumbent in another seat, and a brand new district with no incumbent have the GOP rethinking their plans. They are sending money and national leaders to Oregon in bid to win one or more of the open seats.

At stake:

The 4th Congressional District seat pits Democrat Val Hoyle against Republican Alek Skarlatos for the seat held since the 1986 election by retiring U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Springfield. Skarlatos narrowly lost to DeFazio in 2020, but redistricting shaved off Republican areas to give the 2022 district a more pronounced Democratic tilt. 

The 5th district has Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner of Terrebonne seeking to hold the seat for Democrats after she defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby in the May primary. She faces former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the Republican nominee. It’s considered to have the narrowest partisan split of Oregon’s six districts, with a small Democratic edge.

The 6th district is Oregon’s newest, added to the delegation in 2022 as a reward for large population increases in the state. Republican Mike Swenson is facing off with Rep. Andrea Salinas, one of the legislative architects of the Democratic-backed redistricting plan for 2022. It has a single-digit Democratic edge. 

The political forecasting website FiveThirtyEight rates the 4th district as “likely Democratic,” the 5th district as “lean Republican,” and the 6th district as “lean Democratic.”  The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has the 5th district as a “toss-up,” but the 4th and 6th districts as “likely Democratic.”

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D- Calif., and her GOP counterpart House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., separately held conference, rallies and meetings for their candidates in three open congressional seats up for grabs in Oregon.

Democrats currently hold a razor-thin majority of 219-211 with five vacancies.  

The party of a newly elected president has lost seats in every midterm over the past century except two – Democrats under Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1934 at the onset of the Great Depression and Republicans under George W. Bush following in 2002 following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Pelosi lost the speakership in 2010 when Republicans picked up 63 seats in the first midterm after the election of President Barack Obama in 2008. She returned as speaker in 2020 when Democrats picked up 40 seats in the first midterm after the election of Donald Trump in 2016.

In her trip to Oregon, Pelosi said repeating the history of the rise and fall of party fortunes with a new president wasn’t inevitable. 

“We never accepted that,” she said. “For a year and a half to almost two years now, we have been working: Building our grassroots mobilizations, building our messaging operation and amassing the resources needed for them. We believe it is urgent for the country that we must win.”

McCarthy’s trip to Portland emphasized what he said were crime problems in the state’s largest city. The GOP sees a shot at winning some of the three open seats, as well as holding onto its longtime stronghold of the 2nd Congressional District covering the heavily-Republican areas east of the Cascades. It’s represented by U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, who is seeking a second term.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican political action committee backing McCarthy’s priorities, has paid a reported  $3.3 million for advertising in the Portland media market, which reaches portions of five of the six congressional districts. 

The unofficial slower summer campaign pace With just 58 days from Sunday until the Nov. 8 election, the traditional post-Labor Day the new month has come increasingly public show of support by national political leaders and groups. 

A visit by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., came to support Rep. Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, the state’s lone Republican and promote Republican candidates Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Mike Swenson and Alek Skarlatos.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy came for GOP candidates for Congress. Nancy Pelosi for Democrats. Ted Lieu here for McLeod-Skinner.

Cook Report’s Amy Walter, wrote that 2022 voters were more “meh” on the ties between the White House performance and their congressional votes. These voters might disapprove of Biden’s job performance, but that didn’t translate directly to support for Republican candidates, especially those most identified closely with former President Donald Trump. 

“Many voters who are unhappy with Biden are nonetheless committed to supporting a Democratic candidate in November,” Walter wrote. 

Time ticks by toward election

It’s later and earlier than you think for the 2022 campaigns

Nov. 8 is the official general election day. But voting start nearly three week earlier – ballots for Oregon resident go into the mail beginning Oct. 19.

Oct. 18 is the last day to register to vote. Oct. 19 is the first day ballots go in the mail to Oregon residents who are voters.

But Nov. 8 is the days voting stops. But under a new law for 2022, ballots that are postmarked Nov. 8 have until Nov. 15 to arrive at county clerks offices and be counted.