Bend set as battleground for governor’s debate

Published 5:45 pm Monday, September 26, 2022

The three candidates in one of the tightest, nastiest and more historic races for Oregon governor will battle in Bend on Tuesday night during a debate at Oregon State University-Cascades. 

The mold-breaking race is a rare three-way campaign. All three candidates are women. One is a Democrat. One is a Republican. One is a Republican-turned-Democrat who has dropped all party affiliations.

Democrat Tina Kotek is looking to extend her party’s 40-year hold on the governorship.

Republican Christine Drazan would be the first Republican elected governor since 1982, before more than half of Oregonians were even born.

Betsy Johnson returns to Bend, the city where she was born to a future state lawmaker father. His daughter would be elected one too. But Sam Johnson was a Republican, his daughter a Democrat. Betsy Johnson seeks to become just the second Oregon governor elected without a major party affiliation. Julius Meier did it in 1930.

The 2022 election first looked like Democrats would need to push past low popularity ratings of Gov. Kate Brown, who can’t run again because of term limits. But with all statewide offices held by Democrats and large majorities in the Legislature, a Republican victory would be extremely unlikely.

Johnson’s successful bid to get on the ballot through a petition drive has upended the usual partisan polarity of the election.

The winner could move into Mahonia Hall, the governor’s mansion, by winning less than 40% of the vote. 

Fivethirtyeight.com rates Kotek as slightly favored to win, but the other two forecasters of the three nationally-recognized political prognostication centers aren’t so sure.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss-up” due to the three-way competition.

So does the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Where voters see Johnson on the political spectrum will be crucial to the fortunes of the two major party candidates.

“Kotek and Drazan both will be working to try to prevent their voters from flocking to her banner,” Center for Politics analyst Kyle Kondik wrote earlier this month. 

On Tuesday, the established lines of attack are expected to continue, with each bringing up their own mix of key wedge issues to try to tie the other two together.

Kotek and Johnson both favor abortion rights and government as a conduit for major projects and policies. But Kotek has hammered at Johnson for her timber industry ties that progressives say led her to help derail a major Democratic push on climate change since 2019.

Guns are another issue where Kotek has hit at Johnson as being closer to Drazan than to fellow Democrats. It’s an issue sure to come up in Bend, where a man using a semiautomatic rifle fired over 100 shots in and around a shopping center, killing two before taking his own life as police closed in.

Kotek has been critical of Johnson for her gun collecting, which includes a federally licensed automatic weapon.

Drazan is trying to position Johnson to the left, with Kotek.

Johnson and Drazan are both pro-business and say they are skeptical of major environmental plans that could hurt jobs and businesses in the state. But Drazan has hit Johnson as a 20-year Democratic lawmaker who left the party late last year for an “opportunistic” run for governor. Johnson and Kotek are framed as two longtime members of the Democratic dominance over Salem.

Johnson has hit back hard, especially at Kotek, whom she called “Tent City Tina” for being part of the Portland political establishment during a time when homeless camps have become a wedge issue.

Johnson says that abortion rights is the “only issue” where she is in 100% agreement with Kotek — a shot at Drazan, who is anti-abortion, though she has said she will respect established law on the issue as governor. 

Fueling all the rancor: Over $30 million in campaign contributions as the race sprints to blow past the $40 million mark set by the 2018 race won by incumbent Gov. Kate Brown over former Rep. Knute Buehler, R-Bend.

Kotek and Drazan have each received multi-million contributions from their parties’ national governors conferences.

Johnson has been backed by top Oregon billionaires Phil Knight of Nike and Tim Boyle of Columbia Sportswear.  

The candidates have three more televised debates scheduled. Oregon votes only by mailed ballot, though many marked ballots are taken to drop boxes in many counties.

Ballots will be mailed to voters beginning Oct. 19. Voting ends on Nov. 8. A new state law this year allows ballots that are postmarked on election day or before to be counted if they arrive at election officials’ offices within one week, in this case Nov. 15.

The debate at Tykeson Hall on the OSU-Cascades campus in Bend begins at 6 p.m. and is expected to run about 90 minutes. The format was chosen by the debate organizers: OSU-Cascades, the City Club of Central Oregon, and KTVZ.

The debate audience is by invitation only and will be moderated by KTVZ anchor Cathy Marshall.

The only live viewing of the debate is on KTVZ or KTVZ.com.