Poll operated by top Oregon lobbyists shows Drazan-Kotek still in tight race

A new poll by Salem-based Nelson Research shows Republican Christine Drazan three percentage points against of Democrat Tina Kotek in the race for governor, with unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson dropping into low single digits of support. The poll of 557 likely voters conducted Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 showed 43% backing Drazan and 41% for Kotek – within the polls’4% margin of error. Johnson, who polls showed with as much as 27% support among voters in early summer has 4% of the vote in the new poll. Nelson Research is operated by J.L. Wilson, a top business-oriented lobbyist in Salem. Oregon Chambers of Commerce, Koch Companies Public Sector, LLC and Affiliates, Anheuser Busch Companies, Oregon Christian Education Association, H.F. Sinclair petroleum, Oregon Coalition of Police and Sheriffs, and Boise Cascade wood product. While Wilson is clearly listed as the principal on the Nelson Research’s website and in the business filing with the Secretary of State. But reports on the polls rarely mention the connection.

One in four ballots already returned

More than a quarter of ballots mailed to Oregon’s 2.9 million registered voters has already been returned as of Thursday, according to the daily count by the Secretary of State’s Elections Division. A total of 751,511 ballots have been received at county clerks offices around the state. Oregon’s general election vote-by-mail balloting. Midterm elections have lower turnout than presidential election years. The 2020 election turnout was 78.5%, while the last governor election drew 67.8%. Sparsely populated Lake and Wheeler counties reported the highest 2022 returns so far – 40.4%. Deschutes County is at 31.1%, Crook at 28.4%, and Jefferson at 26.6%. The Portland tri-county area had among the lowest return rates, with Multnomah at 20%, Clackamas at 21% and Washington at 21.8%

Statewide, registered Republicans had returned 34.8% of ballots, Democrats were at 30.6% and Non-Affiliated voters at 13.2%

All ballots must be cast by Nov. 8. However, a new state law this year allows for mailed ballots that are postmarked Nov. 8 or earlier that arrive at clerks’ offices by the end of business on Nov. 15 will be counted. The first report of votes will be released by the Secretary of State soon after the 8 p.m. deadline on Nov. 8.  

Michael Sipe investigated

The Oregon Secretary of State’s office has opened an investigation into money raised and spent at an October forum organized by Michael Sipe, the Republican nominee for the open House District 53. The seat includes portions of Redmond and Bend.The investigation will not be completed prior to the Nov. 8 election day, according to Ben Morris, communications director for Secretary Of State Shemia Fagan.

It would have no impact on the ballot status or election outcome, regardless of whether Sipe wins or loses his race against Emerson Levy, the Democratic nominee. Morris said Sipe has been informed of the investigation. The probe was spurred by a complaint from Eileen Kiely, vice-chair of the Deschutes County Democratic Party.

She raised questions about a Sipe-led event on Oct. 11 by the non-profit Oregon Business Forum.Kiely wrote that Sipe had paid at least some expenses with funds from his state-registered campaign finance committee.

While some contributions for the same date were reported by Sipe, Kiely questioned whether the attendance fee should be counted as a contribution to Sipe’s campaign. Morris said a review of the complaint found enough questions to warrant opening a formal investigation. If the probe finds improper reporting or transactions, the maximum penalty under Oregon law is a fine not exceeding 10% of the amount mishandled.

Sipe wrote in an email to The Bend Bulletin that he had followed all campaign laws.

“Full disclosure was made that all proceeds were going to support my campaign,” Sipe said. “All event proceeds and expenses were properly reported to the Oregon Secretary of State.”