Up or down, hot or cold can move race from toss-up to tilting

Published 9:58 am Thursday, November 3, 2022

Who’s up or down, in or out, hot or cold – crossing the finish line or throwing in the towel.

Until the first vote totals are announced Tuessday night, election watchers are left to parse the guesses of political forecasters and machinations of national party money managers

Oregon’s three open congressional districts races have proven closer and more expensive that expected.

But as the end comes near, the three major political forecasters are making the final guesses of how things will look after the voting stops.

All have changed the 5th district race between Chavez-DeRemer, the Republican and McLeod-Skinner, the Democrat, from toss-up to “leaning Republican.

McLeod-Skinner, a progressive from Terrebonne on the east side of the Cascades ousted incumbent Kurt Schrader of Canby in the Democratic primary. Chavez-DeRemer, who comes from the most populous parts of the 5th district in Clackamas County could benefit from geographic favoratism among voters who might choose proximity over politics.

All three major forecasters have moved the district rightward as Nov. 8 neared. Sabato’s Crystal Ball (named after the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia) made the move last week, with The Cook Political Report (affiliated with NBC) shifting earlier this week, and FiveThirtyEight (affiliated with ABC) making it all three with a shift Wednesday.

On the flip side, all three rate the 4th District as sticking with Democrats. The district includes the college towns of Eugene and Corvallis, along with a smaller slice of Republican-voting timber country that includes Roseburg FiveThirtyEight going as far as to say Skarlatos, the Republican, has a one-in-10 chance of beating Hoyle, the Democrat. The other two says trends are leaning in the direction of Hoyle, the Democrat.

The 6th district is the closest contested, with Cook’s Political Report rating it a “toss-up,” while the other two have it as “leaning Democratic.”The result will determine whether Salinas’ talent in drafting relatively safe districts for Democrats might have been overrated in the case of her own ambition.

CalTargetBook updates campaign spending and giving on a daily basis. One of its key reporters is “House Races with Party Spending.” It tracks four major Republican and four major Democratic political action campaigns and where they are putting money on a daily basis. The website then totals spending and also gives which party is spending the most.

Out of the 435 House districts, CalTargetBook has identified 73 races where these eight committees have contributed. The amounts range from $25.1 million in the 7th Congressional District in Missouri where $25.1 million has been spend so far down to $93,000 spent so far on 73d-ranked 9th Congressional District in California.

As summer turned to autumn, a changed political climate and an epic wave of national money had put all three seats into play.

In the 4th District, an old video podcast of Skarlatos joking about strangling women during sex has attracted waves of money to run dozens of times a day on television and the internet.

In the final week, national forecasters have McLeod-Skinner on the ropes, rating the Lori Chavez-DeRemer having moved the district from “leaning Democratic” in the spring to “leaning Republican the week before election day.

The 6th distirct, which Democrat Andrea Salinas helped draw the new district she’s running in finds herself in a tight race with businessman Mike Erickson.

Through Wednesday night, of the $616 million spent, Republicans accounted for just over $318 million and Democrats just under $298 million.

Oregon has rarely shown up in such tabulations over the years, but 2022 is an exception.

Oregon’s 5th district ranks 28th in spending, at just under $9.8 million, Republicans have have a $4.7 million advantage.

The 6th District ranks 41st with nearly $6.5 million in spending, but Democrats have a nearly $4.9 million advantage.

The 4th District ranks 58th, with nearly $2.7 million in spending and Democrats having a $1 million advantage.

Forecasts are attempts – as one top prognosticator puts it right in their nickname – at “crystal ball” gazing into the near future. Money spending can shift rapidly candidates move from hot to cold as the end gets closer. A local microcosm – if you can call nearly $5 million “micro” – can be seen in the governor’s race.

Nike’s Phil Knight spent $3.75 million through early September on unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson. But her lack of apparent traction in forecasts moved him to shift his bet to Republican Christine Drazan, with a $1 million donation.

Voters get the final say – which will start to become clearer at 8pm on Tuesday with the end of balloting.