It’s been less than a month since U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer was sworn into office, but she’s already officially running for re-election in 2024.

The Happy Valley Republican has filed a “Statement of Candidacy” for the 5th Congressional District seat election in two years.

To see Chavez-DeRemer’s votes and Democratic reaction, it’s clear the 2024 election for the 5th district is already under way. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has issued a stream of e-mails and other social media blasting Chavez-DeRemer’s voting record in the first few weeks of the 118th Congress. 

Chavez-DeRemer says she is following through on an agenda that 5th district voters chose over the Democratic alternative. Though she won the November election by just over 7,000 votes of 316,000 cast, Chavez-DeRemer said the ultimate outcome was that 5th district voters preferred her and her agenda to progressive Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner of Terrebonne. 

“I think I’m in line with the Commitment to America that House Republicans made to the American people,” Chavez-DeRemer said. “It shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody how I’m voting.”

It was a key pick-up for Republicans, who flipped control of the House for the first time in four years. The 222-212 majority, with one vacancy, is slim and open to turbulence caused by the far-right Freedom Caucus that gained several guarantees from GOP leadership in exchange for eventually ending their stall tactics on choosing a House speaker.

Chavez-DeRemer gets spotlight in House votes

Chavez-DeRemer backed McCarthy throughout the extended struggle over the speakership. Without a speaker, the House couldn’t swear-in new members or create rules for even simple items such as recessing to go off the House floor to negotiate in private. The result was a tense week that had the representative-elects unable to officially take office. During a break in the votes, Chavez-DeRemer chatted with Val Hoyle, the Democrat waiting to be sworn in representing the 4th district around Eugene, Corvallis and Roseburg.

It took five days and 15 votes for McCarthy to win the chamber’s top job – the longest delay in choosing a speaker since 1859. The new House members were sworn in at 1:30 a.m. on Jan. 7. By then, many of Chavez-DeRemer’s family and friends who had come east for the ceremony had to return home. 

With their new House majority, Republicans have front-loaded the House agenda with controversial issues, with many tied to attempts to reverse actions by the prior Democratic majority and President Joe Biden.

Since taking office on Jan. 7, Chavez-DeRemer has voted with the new Republican majority in the House on issues from cutting the number of Internal Revenue Service agents to restrictions on doctors’ actions during abortions.

Chavez-DeRemer co-sponsored the Strategic Production Response Act, which mandated a federal plan for replacing oil taken from the national reserve stockpile if the purpose is not deemed a national emergency.

Republican leaders have given Chavez-DeRemer a spotlight in the early going. A press conference with House Majority Leader Steve Scalice, R-La., touted the petroleum reserve issue.

In the equivalent of a political star turn, McCarthy chose Chavez-DeRemer to act as House Speakder Pro Tempore, the title of the House member who stands in for the House Speaker when he is away from the chamber during sessions.

Chavez-DeRemer wielded the gavel for a vote on a bill to prohibit petroleum deals with China. She posted the C-Span video of her short stint on her Instagram and other social media accounts.

Each of Chavez-DeRemer’s votes has unleashed emails and social media posts from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the political arm of House Democrats, blasting her stances.

“She voted in favor of every single concession and the dangerous Republican agenda that will make Americans poorer, sicker, and at greater threat,” a DCCC email said.

In a sign of a likely long-term angle of attack, Democrats are tying Chavez-DeRemer to former President Donald Trump, whose slogan is “Make America Great Again” – known often by the acronym “MAGA.”

Trump lost Oregon to President Joe Biden in 2020 by a margin of 56% to 40%. In the precincts that make up the new boundaries of the 5th district, Biden won by 8%. Chavez-DeRemer was a Trump delegate to the 2020 Republican convention.

“Lori Chavez-DeRemer is all in on the extreme MAGA agenda,” the DCCC said in another e-mail.

Little of the legislation, if any, is expected to become law. Democrats hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate and President Joe Biden can veto anything that makes it to his desk that he opposes. 

Who lost the 5th district?

Democratic legislators drew the 5th district as a curvaceous strand running from Portland over the Santiam Pass to pluck the increasingly Democratic Bend area out of its longtime place as a Democratic “blue” island in a massive Republican “red” 2nd district east of the Cascades. For the GOP to win the seat was a bitter pill for the party.

Chavez-DeRemer and GOP backers say her political stances were on her campaign website for any voter to see. 

“The Radical Left’s policies have turned our economy into shambles and pushed inflation to record breaking numbers,” the website said.

Issues listed included barring the teaching of “critical race theory,” school choice, and a call for tax cuts.

“Washington, D.C. radicals believe in multiculturalism, moral relativism, and that socialism ‘just hasn’t been tried yet, ‘ ” Chavez-DeRemer is quoted on the website as saying. “They want open borders, government-funded healthcare, and abortion on demand. I won’t stand for it. We must defend our rights.”

A slim majority chose her agenda over McLeod-Skinner. 

Chavez-DeRemer joined U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, in Congress. It’s the first time Oregon Republicans have won more than one House seat since 1994. Republicans will pull out all stops to hold onto the seat – and their House majority – while Democrats believe 2024 will bring out the true Democratic tilt in the district.

A popular narrative among political forecasters and some media that Democratic infighting cost them a sure win in the 5th district chafes at Chavez-DeRemer. 

Various camps within the Democratic Party have pointed fingers at each other, chalking up Chavez-DeRemer’s victory to a variety of perceived failures.

Closed primaries gave voters a choice between two candidates who were more partisan and ideological – both right and left – than voters.

McLeod-Skinner’s successful challenge of U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby, took away the proven general election advantage of incumbency.

Or blaming top Democrats for snubbing McLeod-Skinner in contributions from the House Majority Fund, the biggest source of leadership campaign cash.

Or McLeod-Skinner coming from the portion of the district east of the Cascades, far from the Portland media market that’s in Chavez-DeRemer’s backyard in Clackamas County.

Or a hot race for sheriff in Linn County brought out more Republican voters than expected, offsetting McLeod-Skinners advantage in Multnomah and Deschutes counties.

Two years to round two

Jerred Taylor, a Democratic leader in Linn County said there’s a mix of truth and myth in all of the debate over how Chavez-DeRemer won.

While Democrats had a heated race for the party’s nomination, top Republicans got behind Chavez-DeRemer even before the primary. They filled her campaign coffers while third-party “dark money” funded negative ads against McLeod-Skinner.

As for the Schrader vs. McLeod-Skinner debate, Taylor said Democrats in the 5th District were voting their beliefs, not making a tactical choice between Schrader and McLeod-Skinner. Schrader wasn’t owed the nomination – he had to earn it. 

“National pundits really want to paint this narrative, but honestly part of winning elections includes winning the primary in your own party first,” Taylor said. “The voters selected which Dem they felt had the best chance and most reflected their values.”

Taylor believes that Democrats can win back the seat in 2024 when there will be no question about challenging a Democratic incumbent. He believes Chavez-DeRemer’s voting record won’t play well in two years, particularly if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee at the top of the ticket.

“Dems can and will take back CD5 in 2024,” Taylor said. “The district is tight, but has a slight Democratic advantage. We’ll also have Lori’s abysmal voting record to take with us on the doors.” 

As for Chavez-DeRemer filing for re-election, its not unusual. — so have several other incumbents.

Unlike Oregon state offices, which have separate declarations of candidacy and creation of campaign finance committees, the Federal Election Commission bundles them together. If a candidate want to raise money between elections, they have to sign up for the next race.

Chavez-DeRemer plans on being all in – and expects her potential Democratic opponents will be too.

For now, she reminds herself that the voters of the 5th district chose her for the office, no matter how close the vote. Democrats’ weakness is their belief that the 5th district is just waiting for any Democrat to flip back to its prior party allegiance.

Chavez-DeRemer pointed to one recent Democratic email that she says ignored reality.

The DCCC message: “Clearly, Chavez-DeRemer and House Republicans did not learn anything when voters sent a clear and resounding message that they support reproductive freedom — dealing the Republican party an embarrassing midterm performance.”

But not in Oregon’s 5th district.

“Not listening to Democratic activists in Washington D.C. means I won,” she said.