When the political caucuses of the Oregon Legislature shuffled their leadership lineups this month, it set-up a possible preview of a key Senate race in 2024. 

Two-term Rep. Jason Kropf, D-Bend, was elevated to deputy majority whip, replacing five-term Rep. Rob Nosse, D-Portland.

Kropf has swiftly moved up the House ranks since he ended a decade-long hold on an increasingly Democratic-tilting House District 54 in Bend by winning the seat from Rep. Cheri Helt, R-Bend, in 2020.

Last year, Kropf won the plum assignment of chair of the House Judiciary Committee and was named an assistant majority leader, the first rung in the the chamber’s party leadership. Now he is one of the chief lieutenants to House Majority Leader Julie Fahey, D-xx, and among the small cadre of eyes and ears that let House Speaker Dan Rayfield, D-Corvallis, know if there is support for legislation to be brought to the floor with an assurance of drawing enough votes to pass.

“I’ll be working with the speaker and majority leader to make sure we’re organized, who is going to speak on legislation,” Kropf said in a short interview Friday. 

Such strategy was once the job of Republican Tim Knopp, who held Kropf’s seat at the beginning of the century and rose to majority leader when the GOP held sway over the House. He left the House in 2005, only to return seven years later by defeating moderate 

there are few if any surprises for leaders who need 31 things are organized – who is supporting legislation, who is going to speak. 

Kropf represents House District 54, once the seat of Republican Tim Knopp who rose to House majority leader early in the century when the GOP held sway over the chamber. He did not seek re-election in 2004 and was out of the Legislature until mounting a successful last-minute primary bid to oust moderate Sen. Chris Telfer, R-Bend, in 2012. 

As the leader of the minority Republicans in the Senate, Knopp has worked with Democrats on issues including subsidies to lure semiconductor manufacturers to do business in Oregon, and the 2023 effort by Gov. Tina Kotek to spur residential construction as one way to make a dent in the state’s lack of affordable housing and persistent homeless crisis.

But on other issues, Knopp has employed his parliamentary knowledge to stall Democratic efforts on abortion, transgender medical care and gun control. He was the chief strategist on the 42-day GOP walkout to deny a quorum for the Senate to meet, choking the pipeline of legislation through the Legislature until Democrats relented and agreed to compromise versions of bills on abortion, transgender medical care and gun control.

Both Kropf and Knopp will play key roles in the 2024 “short session” of the Legislature set to open Feb. 5 of next year. It runs just 35 days before being required by the Oregon Constitution to adjourn no later than March 10. The dynamics that created legislative gridlock in 2023 remain in place in 2024.

Democrats hold a 35-25 majority in the House and a 17-13 majority in the Senate (opposition includes 12 Republicans and one conservative Independent). Republicans don’t have enough votes to defeat legislation in either chamber.

But they can leverage Oregon’s requirement that two-thirds of lawmakers in each chamber be present to establish a quorum to meet and do any business at all. Oregon is one of only four states that require more than a simple majority for a quorum. By simply not showing up on the floor, Republicans have been able to stall or stop any session when presented with legislation by the majority Democrats that they don’t like.

Any shift in the balance of power – either a bigger Democratic majority or a Republican rebound that would allow them to demand more say in the operation and agenda of the House and Senate will have to wait for the 2024 election. 

An altered political map

Knopp and Kropf could end up pitted against each other in a Democratic move to wrest control of the Republican’s seat in the November election. But first Knopp must win preliminary political and legal battles that could force him to the political sidelines – or to gamble on a run for statewide office.

Oregon voters in 2022 approved Measure 113, which supporters wrote to block any lawmaker with 10 or more absences from re-election. Knopp was among nine Republicans and one conservative Independent who surpassed the mark during the 2023 walkout.

Knopp last week announced plans to seek re-election in 2024. he took the official step of amending his existing state campaign finance committee registered with the Secretary of State to direct contributions and expenditures to a races for re-election to Senate District 27.

Supporters of the Republican walkout say Measure 113 was sloppily written so that there is a question as to when the bar on re-election goes into effect. They also argue it is a violation of their freedom of speech guaranteed in the U.S. and Oregon constitutions.

In a letter last week to newly appointed Secretary of State LaVonne Griffin-Valade, Knopp asked for a “declaratory” ruling by Griffin-Valade of the Republicans’ ability to run for re-election. 

The request seeks a decision prior to Sept. 14, the first day that candidates can file to run in the May 2024 primaries. If Griffin-Valade decides the senators who breached the Measure 113 limit on absences are ineligible to file to run for re-election, the GOP would likely file to have the decision overturned by the Oregon Court of Appeals. If they are given approval to file, Democrats and other supporters of Measure 113 would likely file an appeal with the court.

Even if he qualifies for the ballot, Knopp faces a challenging road to re-election.

Deschutes County has been the fastest growing area in Oregon over the past decade and the influx of newcomers has changed the political complexion from heavily Republicans to a mix that in the Bend and Redmond areas favors Democrats. 

In Oregon, two House districts of two House districts of about 65,000 residents is “nested” within a Senate district. As late as 2020, Republicans held House District 53 and 54 in Deschutes County that make up Knopp’s Senate District 27.

In 2020, Kropf defeated Rep. Cheri Helt, R-Bend, winning 60% of the vote and ending a decade of Republican moderates winning the seat despite a growing Democratic voter count. Deschutes County gave a majority of its votes in 2020 to Joe Biden over President Donald Trump, the first time a clear majority of ballots favored the Democratic candidate since Lyndon Johnson won the county in 1964.

Knopp survived the Democratic tide, Knopp had the closest race of his Senate career, eking out a win by just over 1,600 votes of just under 97,000 votes cast against retired Daimler executive Eileen Kiely of Sunriver. The huge influx of voters for a decade of population growth was apparent in the total ballots cast – no other Senate race totaled even 80,000. 

Redistricting after the 2020 U.S. Census concentrated HD 54 within Bend. House District 53, which had wrapped around the city had swelled beyond the size for a House seat. The district was cleaved on a north-south line. House District 53 had truncated boundaries centered on the more heavily Democratic swath of increasingly populous northern Bend and portions of Redmond. Gone were southern Deschutes County spots such as Sunriver and LaPine, which were grafted onto a heavily Republican House District 55.

With redistricting for the 2022 election, Kropf’s House District 54 became a heavily Democratic stronghold and he easily won re-election with more than 64% of the vote against challenger Judy Trego.

Rep. Jack Zika, R-Redmond, decided not to run for a third term in 2022 after House District 53 was redrawn as a Democratic-friendly seat. Emerson Levy, an attorney in northern Bend, defeated Republican businessman Michael Sipe in November 2022 by just over 500 votes out of more than 39,000 cast.

On to 2024

If Knopp isn’t allowed on the ballot, could try to move up, out or sideways. The walkout has drawn plenty of support among conservatives around the state. Republicans have sometimes struggled to find candidates with high name recognition and the proven ability to fundraise a campaign against the dominant Democrats in Oregon. Other than former House Minority Leader Christine Drazan, who ran a surprisingly close but ultimately losing race for governor in 2022, Knopp has among the highest name recognition in the state. 

Knopp could opt to run for one of the three statewide offices on the ballot in 2024 – secretary of state, treasurer and attorney general. Or, as in 2004, he could opt out of running at all. As a vice-president for the Central Oregon Builders Association, he’ll remain in a job that keeps him in touch with major political contributors in the construction and forest products industries if he were to change his mind again.

If Knopp is one the ballot, who challenge him among Democrats is unclear.

Kiely, a leader in the state Democratic Party, saw Democratic mapmakers move her Sunriver home out of Knopp’s district. She’s in the newly redrawn Senate District 28 of Sen. Dennis Linthicum, R-Klamath Falls. Though Linthicum is also at risk of being blocked from running again for his absences, the district’s demographics are solidly Republican-leaning.

The two Democratic House members with the senate district are already familiar to the electorate. Levy, after her narrow victory in 2022 says she plans to concentrate on re-election to the House.

Kropf could play it safe and have a likely slam-dunk win in this House district. Democrats would love to complete the transition of the Bend area from Republican to Democratic by taking the Senate seat. But with over a year until the November 2024 election, Kropf isn’t biting on speculation as to what he will do.

“Right now I am focused on the job I was elected to do this term,” he said. The 2024 short session will give Democrats a restart – albeit a short one – on getting some additional agenda items into law before asking voters what’s next. 

“We have a lot of work to be done,” Kropf said.