The new legislative leadership teams announced last month point to a possible 2024 election showdown in Bend between a rising Democratic star and a veteran Republican who has never lost an election.

Rep. Jason Kropf, D-Bend, was promoted last month to deputy majority whip in a vote by the House Democratic Caucus. Less than halfway through his second term, Knopf is one of six lawmakers leading the 35 Democrats in the 60-member House. The former Deschutes County prosecutor was bumped up from his spot as an assistant majority leader, the first rung for lawmakers taking leadership roles. Kropf had already been named by House Speaker Dan Rayfield, D-Corvallis, as chair of the House Judiciary Committee. 

Sen. Tim Knopp, R-Bend, will remain minority leader. He was chief strategist on the 42-day GOP walkout in 2023 that stalled the Senate until Democrats agreed to revisions in legislation on abortion, gun control and other bills.

During the 2024 legislative session, Knopf will be working to advance a Democratic agenda that Knopp will be trying to slow or stop.

But by the time lawmakers open the 35-day session on Feb. 5, it will be clear if Kropf is content to remain in his now safely Democratic district. He could take the calculated risk of running for Knopp’s Senate seat, which under redistricting in 2022 became a Democratic-tilting seat with a controversial Republican incumbent.

Kropf already represents half the Senate district in the House. In Oregon, two House seats are nested in each Senate seat. Knopp’s Senate District 27 includes House Districts 53 and 54. Through the 2018 election, Republicans held both House seats along with Knopp’s senate seat. 

In 2020, Kropf became the first Democrat in a decade to flip House District 54, the seat representing most of Bend. While the city increasingly attracted a growing Democratic voter base, moderate Republicans held onto the seat through six straight elections until Kropf defeated one-term Rep. Cheri Helt, R-Bend.

The political landscape shifted further under redistricting for the 2022 election. House District 53 was truncated to cover northern Bend and most of Redmond. It was shorn of Sunriver and La Pine, GOP strongholds to the south of the county. The area south of the Bend city limit is now in the district of Rep. E. Werner Reschke and Sen. Dennis Linthicum, both Republicans from Klamath Falls.

Rep. Jack Zika, R-Redmond, was the official incumbent for House District 53 in 2022. He opted not to seek another term. In November, Bend attorney Emerson Levy narrowly defeated GOP businessman Michael Sipe, despite Republicans raising more funds and spending more money than Democrats.

The redistricting changed the boundaries of Knopp’s district as well. But senators are elected to four year terms as opposed to House members, who run every two years. Knopp wouldn’t have to try to keep his seat until 2024.

Knopp has announced he’ll seek re-election despite the changes to his district. The Secretary of State’s Elections Division reported the July 2023 voter registration in Senate District 27 included 36,323 Democrats – nearly 10,000 more than registered Republicans at 26,478.

The largest slice of the district are non-affiliated voters, many of whom were put on the voter rolls through the state’s “motor voter” law which automatically registers people getting a driver’s license as voters. After getting their license, the voter is sent a card asking if they want to register with one of the state’s major or minor political parties. The majority of cards are never returned, which has led to a growing percentage of voters without party affiliation. 

In announcing his re-election plans, Knopp last week said he and other Republicans were the only way to balance the dominant Democratic power that holds the state’s governorship, both U.S. Senate seats, all state executive offices, four of six congressional seats, and majorities in the Senate and House.

 “Oregonians are fed up with the national Democrat agenda.” Knopp said. “They are tired of out-of-control crime and drug use making their neighborhoods more dangerous. Oregonians deserve better than the reckless tax and spend policies driving up the cost of living and inflation across Oregon.” 

Before he can try to see if his incumbent status can overcome the voter registration edge of Democrats, Knopp must first win a political and then legal battle. 

Voters in 2022 approved Measure 113, which supporters say was written to bar anyone with ten or more unexcused absences from being re-elected. 

Knopp led the Senate GOP walkout  that pushed him, eight other Republicans, and one conservative Independent senator, beyond the limit.

GOP leaders believe Measure 113 has fatal flaws in the way it was written and could be unconstitutional.

Knopp last week asked the Secretary of State’s office for an opinion on his eligibility to run for another term. Whatever the decision, it’s likely to end up in court.

If Knopp can run, the two Democratic House members representing portions of his district would be natural opponents.

Whether or not Knopp can run, Kropf is positioned to use his name recognition and the districts Democratic tilt to push the seat into the Democratic camp.

Levy is aware there is opportunity for a Democrat to win Senate District 27.

“It’s a very different seat now – I haven’t done the math, but I would assume it’s more +D,” she texted on Friday. “D” being Democratic.

But she won’t be the Democrat to test the waters with a Senate run.

“I’m running for re-election,” she said. “My heart is in ’53’,” she said.

With his rising political profile in Salem, Knopf would be a strong challenger.

He’s already flipped a Republican-held House district where Democrats had a numerical advantage. Using his name recognition and legislative leadership role as a springboard to the Senate would give Democrats their first seat east of the Cascades in decades.

After the 2022 redistricting, Kropf’s House seat would be a relatively easier campaign for a local Democrat making their first foray into state politics.

The math may make sense, but Kropf is more intent on counting heads as the deputy whip in the House than counting votes in Senate District 27.

“Right now I am focused on this term,” Kropf said of his re-election to the House last year. “There’s still a lot of work to be done.”