The upcoming Labor Day weekend marks the usual start of the the election season for the following year.

On Sept. 14, candidates can formally file with the Secretary of State to run for office in the May 2024 primaries.

Fundraising is already underway for several candidates getting an early jump. With the exception of U.S. House races, Oregon’s likely electoral outcomes are fairly set, if history is a guide.

But the national outcome will determine if Oregon’s Democratic U.S. Senate and Republican U.S. House delegation retain sometimes powerful majority party chairmanships, or become part of the minority party opposition.

Biden vs. Trump, part II?

Nationally, the big prize is the presidency. Can President Joe Biden win a second term, and will political and legal realities intercede to make the GOP candidate someone other than former President Donald Trump? So far, polls show a repeat of 2020 is the most likely scenario. 

Oregon is a solid Democratic vote for the White House; no Republican has won the state since President Ronald Reagan ran for a second term in 1984. Oregon’s influence will rise slightly in 2024 as it received an eighth Electoral College vote following the 2020 U.S. Census.

Polls show that the indictments faced by Trump may boost his chances of winning the GOP nomination. But November would be different, according to several analyses.

“GOP primary voters might not care about allegations of interference, but general election voters are another story,” G. Elliott Morris wrote in a recent post in FiveThirtyEight, the election statistical website affiliated with ABC News.

Morris noted two studies of of the 2022 midterms found that the Republican congressional candidates endorsed by Trump or who supported his election denialism in losing the 2020 race for the White House performed worse than Republicans who distanced themselves from the former president.

Oregon sits out Senate shifts

Democrats hold a working majority in the 100-member U.S. Senate — 48 Democrats and three Independents allied with the party. Republicans hold 49 seats.

Senators serve six-year terms and roughly a third of all seats are up every two years. In 2024, 33 of 100 seats will be up for election: 10 held by Republicans, 20 held by Democrats and three of the independents who caucus with the Democrats, giving the party its working majority. Special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur in the 118th Congress.

Neither of the two Oregon Democrats in the U.S. Senate are on the 2024 ballot. Sen. Ron Wyden was re-elected in 2022 and Sen. Jeff Merkley in 2020. But the outcome could decide whether Wyden continues as chair of the powerful Senate Finance Committee or becomes the ranking minority member once again. 

Oregon key battlefield for U.S. House control

Republicans won a narrow majority in the U.S. House in 2022, flipping the chamber that Democrats had controlled since 2018. The GOP currently has a 222-212 majority. A Rhode Island seat held by Democrats is currently vacant. All 435 U.S. House seats will be on the ballot in 2024.

Oregon’s 5th Congressional District was flipped by Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Happy Valley in 2022. The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia wrote recently that the Chavez-DeRemer victory was the result of a Democratic over-reach in drawing new district lines that backfired.

“A Democratic gerrymander in Oregon failed to produce the results the majority party hoped for,” the report said, adding “Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s (R, OR-5) narrow victory foiled Democratic attempts to create a 5-1 edge in the state’s delegation.”

The Hill newsletter covering Congress recently rated Chavez-DeRemer as the 9th most vulnerable U.S. House member of both parties seeking re-election in 2024.

The first question is who will win the Democratic primary in the 5th district.

Terrebonne attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner narrowly narrowly lost to Chavez-DeRemer and has launched a campaign for 2024. But the odd shape of the district, running from Portland, over the Cascades to Deschutes County, means a different dynamic in 2024.

Rep. Janelle Bynum, D-Clackamas, and Metro President Lynn Peterson have filed to run. Both Democrats and Republicans hold closed primaries, meaning only party members can vote in party races in the May election. With non-affiliated voters making up the largest portion of voters, over a third of the electorate can’t take part in choosing the two candidates to advance to the November race.

Other Oregon districts

Republicans are also making a push in the 6th Congressional District, won by U.S. Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Tigard. Former Oregon Sen. Denyc Boyles, R-Salem, has filed to run in the GOP primary and more Republicans could join the field in coming weeks and months.

The National Republican Campaign Committee has put a lot of time and energy into attacks on U.S. Rep. Val Hoyle, D-Springfield, who currently holds the 4th district.

The NRCC has hammered on campaign contributions to Hoyle from La Mota, the controversial marijuana dispensary company involved in the moonlighting deal with former Secretary of State Shemia Fagan. Fagan resigned over the scandal.

The GOP has also played up a $1.7 million judgment by a Multnomah County jury to the former head of the civil rights division of the Bureau of Labor and Industry when Hoyle held the office. 

Carol Johnson was awarded $1.7 million late this month as the jury supported her claim she endured a hostile workplace and racial discrimination before resigning.

“Val Hoyle has a history of shady practices and needs to be held accountable,” said Ben Peterson, the NRCC operative assigned to West Coast congressional races. “Any whistleblower with knowledge of shady, corrupt or unethical activities by Val Hoyle can report them.”

Democrats say the NRCC attacks are desperation moves and point out that no Republican has filed to create a campaign finance committee with the Federal Election Commission to run against Hoyle. Federal filings require a “statement of candidacy,” the equivalent of a declaration that that the fundraising candidate will run for the office. 

Redistricting for the 2022 election changed the boundaries of the 4th District, making it much more friendly to Democratic candidates.

Alek Skarlatos, the Roseburg Republican famous for his part in subduing a terrorist bent on attacking a train between Amsterdam and Paris, is not currently looking to make a third bid for the GOP nomination.

Incumbent U.S. Reps. Suzanne Bonamici, D-Beaverton, Earl Blumenauer, D-Portland, and Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, are in districts with heavy voter tilts for their party. All three are considered safe for re-election by major polling and voter analysis firms such as Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and the Center for Politcs at the University of Virginia.