The 35-day legislative session that begins Monday will challenge everyone at the Oregon Capitol, from Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek on down.

That was evident during the 2024 Legislative Preview hosted this week by the Oregon Legislative Correspondents Association. Press corps president Julia Shumway, deputy editor of the Oregon Capital Chronicle, organized Wednesday’s discussion with Kotek and legislative leaders.

The stakes rose higher on Thursday when the Oregon Supreme Court ruled that most senators who engaged in last year’s lengthy legislative walkout cannot seek re-election.

Kotek has bet her political chips – her influence, reputation and effectiveness – on Senate Bill 1537 to increase the state’s housing supply. The Taxpayers Association of Oregon chided her for introducing only the one bill despite having completed her highly publicized One Oregon Listening Tour. The organization opined, “After touring 36 counties of sincere listening, Kotek apparently came away with no good ideas.” 

At the opposite end of the political spectrum, many of Kotek’s fellow progressives have heartburn about her wanting to change Oregon’s land-use laws to provide more land for housing development. Kotek rejects the notion that her proposal is a warmed-over version of House Bill 3144, which failed in the waning hours of the 2023 session despite her last-minute lobbying.

“Folks with good jobs can’t find housing. Folks who are struggling with affordability can’t find housing. It is an issue around the state,” Kotek told journalists on Wednesday. “SB 1537 is a comprehensive approach to jumpstart housing production that I am working hard with legislators for their support to get it done. It’s been seven months of collaborative conversations with housing organizations, people who build housing, cities, conservation groups – the whole gamut of folks who care about this bill.”

Kotek doesn’t yet have the votes to ensure passage, but she commended Senate President Rob Wagner, D-Lake Oswego, and Sen. Kayse Jama, D-Portland, chair of the Senate Housing committee. She said the pair “are working to find middle ground as the bill is developed further to get across the finish line. And I have the utmost confidence that the Senate is trying to hear from all sides in a final amendment to make sure this bill can be done this session.” 

For Wagner, this session will test whether his Democratic colleagues believe he has demonstrated the confident, cohesive leadership to earn another term as president in 2025 (assuming the Democrats maintain Senate control). With only 35 days, the session moves so quickly that many lawmakers will watch their pet proposals fall by the wayside. 

Everyone, D’s and R’s alike, awaits next week’s revenue forecast. It will indicate how much the Legislature can spend. Wagner and House Speaker Dan Rayfield, D-Corvallis – or their surrogates – undoubtedly will have to reject some worthwhile requests. How those requests are handled will have repercussions inside and outside the Capitol.

The Senate majority leader, Kate Lieber, D-Portland, co-chairs the committee handling what likely will be the most contentious bill – revising Measure 110, cracking down on drug dealing and expanding substance-abuse treatment. Rep. Rob Nosse, D-Portland, a member of that Joint Committee on Addiction and Community Safety Response, wrote in his constituent newsletter this week, “We could be debating this bill in committee right up to the last day of the 2024 session.” 

Although public hearings begin next week, the public and most lawmakers have yet to learn the actual wording that will become House Bill 4002.

Senate Republicans, along with those who caucus independently, are in a weird position. Having already been banned from being re-elected, 10 senators would face little repercussion – other than any public recrimination and possible Senate fines – if they boycotted again.

The 10 include Senate Republican Leader Tim Knopp of Bend, who said Thursday that he wouldn’t appeal the Supreme Court decision. Two of the 10 – Sens. Brian Boquist of Dallas and Dennis Linthicum of Klamath Falls – have their own case pending in federal court.

The atmosphere between Republicans and the Senate Democratic leadership has improved from last year. “We believe that we’re on more of a path for a bipartisan session and we hope that remains that way,” Knopp said.

He said his caucus is not talking about walking out but reserves the right to do so. If at least 11 senators are absent, the Senate lacks a quorum to conduct business. Thus, Democrats would be unwise to provoke a Republican boycott. 

On the House side, the futures of Speaker Rayfield and speaker-in-waiting Julie Fahey, D-Eugene, are on the line.

Rayfield is running for attorney general this year. Democrats have held the office since 1993, when Ted Kulongoski was sworn in. As a Democrat in blueish Oregon, Rayfield typically would be lock. That assumes he presides over no missteps in the legislative session and voters become satisfied with the state’s progress on public safety. However there already are hard feelings within the House because of comments attributed to a Portland-area Democrat and Southern Oregon Republicans.

Under the Oregon Constitution, the session must conclude by March 10. Rayfield plans to resign at the end to focus on his statewide campaign. House Democrats selected Majority Leader Fahey as their planned nominee to succeed him. But Republicans are not keen on an end-of-session vote for a new presiding officer, according to House Republican Leader Jeff Helfrich of Hood River.

Given the voter unease in Oregon, not to mention the national political currents, the 2024 legislative elections could alter the balance of power within the Capitol. That possibility will play into how Oregon’s 90 legislators vote during the session, and what they say during debates. 

Debate will be shaped by the many legislators running for office: their own, the Senate (for House members seeking to move up), state treasurer, secretary of state or Congress. The candidate filing deadline is March 12, a mere two days after the Legislature must adjourn.