Carl Riccadonna is moving across the country for arguably the most controversial job — and one of the most important — in Oregon state government.

He begins work Monday as state economist, whose leadership determines how much money the Legislature can spend — and whether Oregonians get an income tax “kicker” refund.

OK, he actually will be “chief economist,” not “state economist.” Gov. Tina Kotek’s administration shelved the latter title upon the departure in May of longtime State Economist Mark McMullen. Perhaps the change in wording is a subtle indicator of the pressure on and by Democrats to stop having state revenue forecasts that lead to massive taxpayer refunds.

The latest forecast, issued last week, predicts a $987 million refund to Oregonians when they file their 2026 personal income tax returns.

Riccadonna’s career has unfolded on Wall Street. His LinkedIn profile gives no mention of previous government experience. On Wednesday he posted Oregon’s press release about his hiring, adding, “I’ve traded the ‘Canyons of Wall Street’ for the Columbia River Gorge.

“New coast, new career opportunity! Those who know me well know that I’ve got some very special connections to the state.”

I wanted to ask Riccadonna about those connections, as well as, “Why make the move from the private sector to one of the most important, yet controversial jobs, in Oregon government; and what challenges do you foresee?”

He politely declined, saying he couldn’t comment until he officially starts work on Monday. Although frustrating for a journalist, that response makes sense for him politically, professionally and personally. No point in annoying his new bosses, who strive — not always successfully — to safeguard the Kotek administration’s reputation.

Senior economist Josh Lehner, who has filled in since McMullen’s exit, will leave state government next week. After 16 years at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, he chose to join SGH Macro Advisors instead of pursuing McMullen’s role. SGH is based in Greenwich, Connecticut, but the firm’s chief U.S. economist is University of Oregon economics professor Tim Duy.

Lehner wrote on the office blog Thursday that he had multiple job options and, “Ultimately I chose what I think is the best option for me and my family.”

After more than a decade of stability, recent months brought almost a complete turnover in OEA staff. Economist Mitchell D’Sa was hired this summer, Jordan Macias arrived via a job rotation in state government, and Michael Kennedy returned to work part-time after retiring at the end of the year. Demographer Kanhaiya Vaidya continues working part-time since retiring.

“[T[he new team has assembled. I know they are going to do great work. You all just need to be patient as they get their sea legs,” Lehner wrote.

For the past two years, Riccadonna has been chief U.S. economist for the global financial firm BNP Paribas, whose headquarters are in Paris (as in France, not the Paris in Oregon’s Coast Range).

He went to work for Deutsche Bank in 2001 after graduating from Princeton University, where he studied mechanical/aerospace engineering, finance and economics. From Deutsche Bank, he moved to Bloomberg and then BNP Paribas. The Internet indicates he’s a well-known speaker and media figure, who “translates his analysis of macroeconomic trends into actionable intelligence at the industry and sectoral level.”

In Oregon, he will head a tiny but powerful office within the Department of Administrative Services. Its name — Office of Economic Analysis — doesn’t capture its outsized role.

The economists are best known for the quarterly economic and revenue forecasts on which the governor builds her budget – and which the Legislature uses in deciding what to really spend and where. Besides business and personal income taxes, these forecasts include the Oregon Lottery; fines and fees paid to the state; and taxes on marijuana, psilocybin, tobacco, alcohol, estates and insurance.

In addition, the office is responsible for producing predictions about:

— Oregon’s population;

— how many people will be incarcerated in the state’s adult and youth facilities;

— public defender caseloads;

— the allowable legal increase in residential rents; 

— availability of fossil and alternative fuels; 

— transportation costs, taxes and fees; and

— various other projects, from Measure 110 to housing needs, as assigned by state policymakers.

 There is no indication Riccadonna has experience in these additional areas. Neither did McMullen when he started.

That’s part of what makes the state economist role — er, chief economist — so daunting.