Oregon legislators, be forewarned. Don’t be tempted to open the state’s checkbook again and again.

The state, national and global economies are too topsy-turvy to count on the good times continuing.

Tim Nesbitt, a former union leader and adviser to Democratic Govs. Ted Kulongoski and Joh Kitzhaber, cautioned against overspending in a commentary published Wednesday:

“We learned a hard lesson in the late 1990s and 2000s, when a strongly growing economy generated both kicker refunds for taxpayers and rising revenues for the state’s budget, which later collapsed in the wake of two recessions and forced deep cuts in services thereafter.”

Federal policies are evolving by the week, sometimes by the hour. That flux means lawmakers might or might not have a more concrete picture when the next state economic and revenue forecast is released May 14. The quarterly forecast issued last month projected billions more available to spend, as well as hefty “kicker” refunds for taxpayers.

Since then, the outlook has become even more turbulent. Yet that forecast already had noted significant uncertainties related to Trump administration policies: “Oregon economic activity will be highly vulnerable to national priorities relating to tariffs, immigration and federal expenditures.”

Four issues stand out:

• The Oregon economy depends more on exports and manufacturing than the typical U.S. state. 

“Ongoing trade disputes – particularly with major trading partners like China, Canada and Mexico  – could negatively impact Oregon’s key exports, such as semiconductors, machinery, transportation equipment and agricultural products. These products rely heavily on international demand, and tariffs or restrictions could reduce export volumes, drive down prices, and harm associated industries like transportation and warehousing.”

In the past, retaliatory tariffs imposed by other nations targeted U.S. agriculture, timber and manufacturing, which are core industries in Oregon. Before the previous Trump administration increased tariffs in 2018, Oregon was outperforming the national economy. Our economy then quickly slowed.

Will a new trade war send the Oregon economy toward stagnation?

Not necessarily, according to Rep. E. Werner Reschke, R-Malin. A different outcome is possible if Oregon were to become as business friendly as some states.

“I think the tariffs, if done properly, can bring manufacturing back to the United States,” Reschke said in discussing the forecast. “Tariffs are bad for Oregon, I think, if we stay with the same policies we have right now.”

On a related note, the Oregonian reported on Thursday that Austin, Texas, had knocked Portland from the ranks of the nation’s 25 largest metro areas. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro now is 26th.

• “The possibility of large-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants could have significant economic repercussions for Oregon. Many industries – including agriculture, construction, food processing, hospitality, and timber – rely heavily on immigrant labor. Removing a substantial portion of the workforce could lead to labor shortages, increased costs for businesses, and disruptions in supply chains.”Oregon is highly dependent on immigrant workers. Based on 2019 data, the Migration Policy Institute estimates 72,000 them are undocumented. 

• The massive, abrupt downsizing of the federal workforce will particularly affect Eastern Oregon, where federal jobs make up a larger share of the local payroll.

• “[T]he federal funding freeze on wildfire prevention programs has raised concerns about preparedness for the 2025 fire season.”

Beyond those political actions, other threats listed by the state economists included volatile oil prices, the potential for another pandemic, drought in some parts of Oregon and flooding in others, the state’s dismal population growth – and the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake that lurks in our future.

Meanwhile, changes in federal tax laws could benefit some Oregon businesses and individuals while hurting others.

Legislators from both parties have proposed numerous ways to spend Oregonians’ tax dollars, fees and other state revenue. Holding the line will test Senate President Rob Wagner, House Speaker Julie Fahey and ultimately Gov. Tina Kotek.

Thursday already was Day 52 of the 2025 Oregon Legislature’s 160-day session.