BEND – Last September, Republicans called the 2022 map of new congressional districts a dirty deal meant to lock in Democratic control of the delegation for the next decade.

House Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland, was accused of backing out of a deal to give Republicans equal sway on maps for the state’s six seats in the U.S. House.

“She just sold the soul of our state for Democrats’ political gain,” said then-House Minority Leader Christine Drazan, R-Canby. “She’s determined to gerrymander Oregon congressional maps.”

That was before a retirement, a primary defeat and a completely new district scrambled the congressional election map.

Three open seats are now considered competitive between Democrats and Republicans. A major reason, according to Amy Walter, editor in chief of Cook Political Report, is the absence — one by choice, one by primary vote — of two veteran congressman.

In 2022, with nationwide redistricting, incumbency — always a potent campaign tool — has a stronger role than usual. Open seats are a political problem, especially for  Democrats.

“New faces in new places,” Walter said. 

With one weekend to go before votes are counted on Nov. 8, Republicans believe they can ride voters’ sour mood, amplified by a tsunami of national GOP campaign money, to upend the status quo in the Oregon delegation to the U.S. House in Washington, D.C.

Every flip could force Democrats into minority

The redistricting plan of six Democrats and one Republican seems a long time ago.

The one Republican and two Democratic incumbents are forecast to win re-election in safe partisan districts.

But its open season on the three open seats. In a year of mushy popularity ratings for President Joe Biden, basement-dwelling job performance ratings for Gov. Kate Brown, inflation and high gas prices, the GOP believes it has a realistic chance at flipping one of the three open seats, a shot at two, and a dream of grabbing all three.

Even the loss of one Democratic seat in Oregon would cripple Democrats’ hopes of beating historic trends of the party in the White House losing seats in midterm elections. 

With Democrats holding a fragile 220-212 majority, the loss of just six seats would give control of the U.S. House to Republicans.

With voting ending in less than a week and more than 600,000 ballots already returned, two of the three major national election forecasters report one of the three open seats is “leaning” toward Republicans, with the other two ranked as “toss-up” or “leaning Democratic.”

In a sign of intense competition, all three open seat races are ranked in the top 15% of House races for national political spending that hit $616 million on Wednesday and is expected to spiral quickly higher.

Calm before the storm

Oregon came into 2022 with six U.S. House seats in redrawn districts.

Democrats held four, with U.S. Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, D-Beaverton and U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer, D-Portland, running as prohibitive favorites in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts.

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Springfield, saw the new map of his 4th district shorn of many GOP strongholds. U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby, faced a radically redrawn 5th district that now ran from Portland to Albany, then leapt over the Cascades to include the rising Democratic voter numbers in northern Deschutes County around Bend.

The lone Republican, U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz of Ontario, enjoyed a heavy tilt to Republicans in the 2nd Congressional District that covered most of eastern, central and southwestern Oregon.

The 6ths district was brand new, an addition awarded Oregon because of its rapid growth compared to other states. Space for the newcomer was shoehorned into a stretch of the Willamette Valley centered around Salem. It forecast a mild Democratic tilt and no incumbent.

This was the map Republicans derided as designed to result in a 5-1 Democratic majority in the delegation.

Musical chairs

Less than six months into the election year, the hypothetical outcomes turned into real races with real candidates.

In Oregon, partisan offices feature closed primaries in which only party members can vote. About one-third of voters in Oregon are non-affiliated, and can’t mark their primary ballots in races for Congress, the Legislature and most state executive offices, including governor.

After the May 17 primaries, three of Oregon’s six congressional seats had no incumbent coming into the Nov. 8 general election.

DeFazio, the dean of Oregon’s congressional delegation, having first come to the U.S. Capitol in 1987, announced in late 2021 that he would not seek re-election.

The district’s increased Democratic lean meant a new party candidate would be favored to win.

Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle, the former Oregon House majority leader, dropped plans to run for re-election and won the Democratic primary for the 4th district seat. Republican Alek Skarlatos of Roseburg, who had given DeFazio a closer than normal race in 2020, won the GOP primary.

Skarlatos has attracted extra Democratic money for negative ads endlessly showing a videotape of a video podcast in which he joked about strangling women during sex. 

Schrader, the most conservative Democrat in the delegation, lost a bid for re-election to progressive Terrebonne attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. Schrader said afterward that voters should be concerned about the “socialistic drift” of the state party’s politics.

Republicans chose former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a protege of the House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-NY, who ousted U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wy., from the party’s No. 3 position in the House over Cheney’s vote to impeach then-President Donald Trump.

Advertising has highlighted the vast political gulf between the suburban conservative who would be the first Latina elected to the House from Oregon and McLeod-Skinner, who would be the first openly lesbian member from Oregon. Nowhere has the closed primary system given voters a wider gulf between the social and fiscal policies of the two candidates. It’s also a test of whether there are enough voters east of the Cascades for McLeod-Skinner to overcome the bulk of voters west of the mountains.

In the new 6th district, former Oregon Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Lake Oswego — a key redistricting force in the Legislature — faces Republican businessman Mike Erickson, also of Lake Oswego.

Despite the outrage from Republicans a year ago, the new maps and political animosities are less likely to end with the continuation of Democrat’s lopsided dominance in the Oregon delegation to Capitol Hill. Chavez-DeRemer has emerged as the favorite in the politically polar choices on the ballot in the 5th District. Hoyle appears to have a relatively easy path to victory in the 4th.

In the tightest of the three open race, a hint of daylight has opened up in some forecasts with Salinas trying to hold onto a meager lead over the last days of the campaign.