Who lost Oregon’s 5th Congressional District?

It’s the question ricocheting around the state, in social media and commentaries as post mortems begin in the victory of Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the 5th Congressional District race.

Even before Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner conceded Sunday afternoon, the blame game was getting louder among Democrats, their allies, and analysts.

The reality was all the more stark as Chavez-DeRemer tweeted a photograph on Monday in front of the U.S. Capitol where she said she was attending new member orientation.

As Republicans struggled to get over the 218-seat line that would give them control of the U.S. House they had lost in 2018, the Oregon race was seen as a self-inflicted wound for Democrats.

“A critical GOP pickup,” The Cook Political Report said on Twitter Sunday as it too rated the race as a win for Chavez-DeRemer.

Just before midnight on Monday, Chavez-DeRemer had a 6,869-vote lead with the district-wide ballot count at 329,851. The vote showed the Republican with 50.91% of the vote and McLeod-Skinner at 48.82%.

Ballots postmarked Nov. 8 or earlier will be counted through Tuesday, Nov. 15. Unofficial final results in all races are expected Wednesday.

But the recriminations over the GOP flipping a congressional seat started early.

ABC News late Monday projected Democrats would maintain their majority in the U.S. Senate, with at least a 50-49 margin, with a Democrat seat in Georgia to be decided in a Dec. 3 run-off. Among the winners was U.S. Rep. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon.

Losses in the 435-member House were projected to be smaller than forecast last month. But by late Monday, ABC News projected House Republicans had won 214 seats to 207 for Democrats. Republicans led in a majority of the 14 undecided seats, putting them on track to hit the minimum 218-seat majority.

Though narrower than GOP leaders hoped, the returns appeared good enough to wrest control of the U.S. House from Democrats, who currently have a 220-212 majority in the U.S. House, with three vacancies.

The longshot hopes of Democrats holding the House faded Sunday and were remote by Monday night. A big reason was the returns from Oregon.

While Democrat Andrea Salinas was projected to pick up the new 6th district in Oregon, the loss in the 5th district meant Democrats would hold just four of six seats. Chavez-DeRemer would join U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, to give Republicans two Oregon seats for the first time since 1994.

Why the outcome? Depends on who is telling the tale.

National Democrats and some media outside of Oregon blamed McLeod-Skinner for her insurgent campaign. In May, she ousted seven-term U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby.

Josh Krashauer, a senior political writer for Axios, used a popular nickname for conservative Democrats to critique McLeod-Skinner’s running to Schrader’s left in a closed Democratic primary.

“The decision to primary a popular Blue Dog Dem could end up costing Dems the majority,” he tweeted Sunday.

The New York Times analysis of the national election results said “voters voiced their support for moderation.” Their top example was Doug Mastriano, the Trump-backed candidate for Pennsylvania governor. He lost to Democrat Josh Shapiro in the biggest non-incumbent landslide in the state since 1946.

The second example, on the other end of the political spectrum, was McLeod-Skinner.

“A liberal Democrat in Oregon who beat a veteran centrist House Democrat in the primary, Representative Kurt Schrader, lost the seat for her party to the G.O.P., a stinging blow to the Democrats’ chances of holding their majority,” the article said.

But McLeod-Skinner’s allies pointed back at national Democrats, who they say abandoned support for McLeod-Skinner, in part out of anger that she had bucked the will of party elders to challenge Schrader.

“This seat could have made the majority, but the national Democratic PACs walked away and left Jamie to twist in the wind,” said Rob Duffey, spokesman for the Working Families Party.

The national minor party cross-nominated McLeod-Skinner and gave her campaign $1 million. Duffy slammed The House Majority PAC, which is run by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., for snubbing McLeod-Skinner. He said money earmarked for the 5th district was shifted to the neighboring 6th district to help Oregon Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Lake Oswego, beat back a Republican challenge.

Intercept, a left-leaning news and commentary website, also blamed Pelosi for a move that could lead to her losing the speakership to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

“Republicans, on the other hand, treated the race in Oregon’s 5th District as the toss-up it clearly was,” the Intercept wrote Monday “They spent nearly $8 million in total — spending that ballooned all the way through Election Day.”

Republicans rejected both views, saying Chavez-DeRemer represented the preferred political views of the district, which on paper had a slight Democratic tilt.

“Lori Chavez-DeRemer will be a strong voice for conservative solutions in Washington,” McCarthy wrote. “Looking forward to working side by side with Lori.”

– gwarner@eomediagroup.com

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Age: 53

Office: U.S. Representative-elect

District: Oregon 5th Congressional District, which includes portions of Deschutes, Clackamas, Multnomah, Marion and Linn counties

Takes office: January 2023

Family: Married for 30 years to Shawn DeRemer, a physician specializing in anesthesiology. The couple have twin adult daughters, Annie and Emilie, 26. Annie works in Shawn DeRemer’s medical business, while Emilie is a public defender in Michigan.

Residence: Happy Valley, Clackamas County. Chavez-DeRemer has said she would move into the nearby 5th district if elected.

Political history: Happy Valley City Council, 2004-2010. Happy Valley Mayor 2010-2018. Republican nominee for Oregon House District 51 in 2016 and 2018, losing to Rep. Janelle Bynum. Delegate pledged to Donald Trump at 2020 Republican National Convention.

Education: California State University, Fresno, bachelor of arts in business administration Management, 1990

Work: Business manager for Evolve Health, a intravenous infusion and wellness business, co-owned by her husband, Shawn DeRemer, a physician specializing in anesthesiology. Patients with a doctor’s referral can receive infusions for autoimmune deficiencies. It also offers ketamine infusions approved for treating depression. Previously worked in her husband’s medical practice, as a substitute teacher and in wine sales.

Worth: $8.7 million or more, according to federal campaign finance disclosure statements. Assets included interests in her husband’s infusion and wellness business, and a 10% share of SSJD Consulting, a Portland-area cannabis producer. The couple’s home is valued at $1 million.

Home town: Grew up in Hanford, California