After a decade of trying, Democrats in 2020 finally flipped a key Republican seat east of the Cascades – and hoped to do it again this year.

But despite a Democratic-friendly open seat next door, efforts to replicate the feat in 2022 are running into a cash crunch.

PAC funds GOP defense of key seat

The statewide funding challenge is showing up in some key races Democrats have targeted for November 2022.

Democrats flipped House District 54 in 2020, with now Rep. Jason Kropf, D-Bend, ousting Rep. Cheri Helt, R-Bend. Republicans held the seat for a decade despite an ever-growing Democratic voter edge.

Legislative and congressional districts have to be redrawn every ten years to rebalance population and demographic shifts. The 2020 U.S. Census showed especially rapid growth in Bend and surrounding Deschutes County.

Redistricting for the 2022 election led to a major realignment of districts in and around Bend. Much of the new population votes Democratic compared to earlier times.

Democrats in the legislature drew boundaries that maintained a now prohibitively strong Democratic voter edge in House District 54 centered in Bend.

As recently as 2016, the parties spent about $2 million on the race for what was then a hyper-competitive seat.

Now running for a second term, Kropf has raised just $41,965 in 2022. The relatively meager fundraising by both candidates shows the GOP isn’t pushing hard to recover the seat. Redistricting gives it a prohibitive Democratic majority in 2022.

House District 64 Republican Judy Trego reports $33,695 in total contributions. As of Tuesday, her campaign finance reports show no money coming from either Evergreen Oregon PAC or Bring Balance to Salem PAC.

Kropf is sending his own funds elsewhere. He has used leftover money from his 2020 campaign to give $31,000 to Future PAC House Builders for other races around the state.

One of the most competitive races is now next door in House District 53. Redistricting consolidated the seat to an area of northern Deschutes County that includes parts of Bend and Redmond. It’s now considered to have a single-digit Democratic voter lean.

Incumbent Rep. Jack Zika, R-Redmond, who criticized the Democratic-drawn 2022 maps, opted not to seek re-election.

Following redistricting and with Zika’s departure promising an open seat, Democrats said flipping House District 53 was a target to flip as part of a strategy to maintain or even expand their 14-seat House majority.

But with less than a month before ballots go out to voters, the fundraising difference between the two House District 53 candidates has grown larger by the week – in Republicans’ favor.

Emerson Levy, the Democrat, has raised just under $54,000 in 2022. The Bend attorney has received $8,750 from Future PAC House Leaders — less than a third of the money Kropf gave to the party’s efforts.

Republican Michael Sipe has over raised $292,000. Other than a $50,000 loan from the company he owns, Cross Pointe, his largest single contribution has been $17,000 from Evergreen Oregon PAC – the House Republicans’ PAC. He’s also received $5,000 directly from Bring Balance to Salem PAC.

Sipe supporters heckled Levy during a Bend Chamber of Commerce candidate forum on Sept. 14, with media reports spreading beyond Bend to statewide and national media reports.

The outrage hasn’t translated into a wave of new money so far.

Progressive Democrats say having the most money doesn’t always translate to victory. U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby, who had five times the funds of insurgent primary challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner of Terrebonne. But McLeod-Skinner comfortably beat Schrader, winning by a large margin in Deschutes County. She now faces Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Happy Valley on Nov. 8.

Andrew Rogers, communications director for Future PAC House Builders declined to discuss specifics of the Democratic fundraising efforts for Levy.

But Rogers pointed to the new Democratic-friendly lean of House District 53 as an omen of change.

“I will say that that seat is almost a 3% Democratic edge and will be held by a Democrat sooner rather than later,” he said.