It’s been a momentous few days for current and future inhabitants of the Oregon Capitol.

Despite winning a supermajority at the Nov. 5 election, Senate Democrats dismissed the overseer of their campaigns, Majority Leader Kathleen Taylor, who’d only been in the role since July. They replaced her with Sen. Kayse Jama, a fellow Portlander who reportedly was seen as a compromise after deadlocked voting. 

Next, House Republicans turned over their top leadership. The new Republican leader is a former Republican leader, Christine Drazan, of Canby, who had left the Legislature to run for governor in 2022.

Leader Jeff Helfrich, of Hood River, did not seek the position again despite losing only one House seat – if that – to Democrats. House District 22 remains up in the air. As of 4 p.m. Thursday, Democrat Lesly Muñoz, of Woodburn, held a 119-vote lead over Rep. Tracy Cramer, R-Gervais.

Meanwhile, the state’s new top economist released a mind-blowing revenue forecast that will pump up the next state budget. If he and his staff are right, the 2025 Legislature will have nearly $1 billion more to spend than previously expected, and taxpayers will receive a hefty income tax “kicker,” though possibly the last one for a while.

Skeptics fear Gov. Tina Kotek and Democratic allies finally found a chief economist who would conform to their optimistic financial desires. State Economist Mark McMullen and senior economist Josh Lehner departed this year.

However, the forecast-modeling changes made by chief economist Carl Riccadonna and his Office of Economic Analysis seem sensible: Oregon had been overly pessimistic in understanding national economic data, and Oregon’s unique “kicker” refunds had inadvertently skewed revenue projections. 

Democrats control the Legislature and thus can decide how that money is spent. If Muñoz prevails, Democrats will have a supermajority in the House as well as the Senate, giving them the power to unilaterally increase taxes without Republican support.

Republican legislators do possess power: Their presence is necessary for the House and Senate to have the required quorums for conducting business.

Drazan, who takes a harsher line than Helfrich, and Senate Republican Leader Daniel Bonham, of The Dalles, have been part of past walkouts and other business-delaying tactics.

This year’s short legislative session went relatively smoothly because legislative leaders agreed beforehand to avoid the most controversial issues. However, 2025 brings uncertainty.

“I’ve been very consistent that I think walking out is a terrible way to legislate,” Bonham told me this week. “The fact that it’s happened as often as it happens, should showcase to the people that times have gotten extremely partisan in Salem. The agendas have [become] extreme. We’re not dealing in compromise anymore.”

What will it take to avoid a repeat of 2023’s 43-day business-stalling boycott by Republican and Independent senators?

Bipartisanship, Bonham said, which requires true leadership, respect and cooperation with the minority party.

He and Senate President Rob Wagner, D-Lake Oswego, have a cordial relationship on a personal level. They have been meeting biweekly, accompanied by their chiefs of staff. But it’s difficult to get over the reality that Bonham is barred from seeking reelection in 2026 because Wagner marked him as unexcused throughout the 2023 walkout.

Under anti-walkout Measure 113 passed by voters two years ago, lawmakers cannot seek reelection if they have 10 or more unexcused absences during a session. Legislative rules give the presiding officers – President Wagner and House Speaker Julie Fahey, D-Eugene – the sole power to excuse an absence or not, regardless of circumstances.

There is no right of appeal, no adjudication. Bonham has been asking that such due process be added to the Senate rules. 

Although their approaches will differ, Democrats and Republicans will share many priorities in the 2025 Legislature, including increasing the housing supply, working to alleviate homelessness, confronting the drug crisis and protecting public safety, solidifying the state transportation system, holding state agencies accountable and balancing the state budget.

But against likely Republican opposition, Oregon Democrats also will seek to fortify state laws and programs against potential incursions by incoming President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans.

As for how those workings will play out in the state Senate, Bonham and his newly chosen Democratic counterpart do not know each other well. Both said building their relationship would be a priority.

“My goal is always to bring people together and unite … creating space where people feel they are included, where people feel welcome,” Jama said. “I’m someone who is really collaborative in nature.”

A longtime nonprofit leader, Jama has served since in the Senate since 2021, where he is the first former refugee, Black Muslim and Somali-American member.

Trust building, he told me, is part of his culture.