A new election forecast says there’s wobble in Democrats’ 40-year hold on the Oregon governor’s office, even as Republicans hit a historic low point along the West Coast.

The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia on Thursday moved the Nov. 8 race for Oregon governor from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up.”

“This is despite the state’s blue lean and the fact that Republicans have not won a gubernatorial race there since 1982,” wrote Kyle Kondik, the center’s managing editor.

The key change is the near certainty of a three-way race for governor that might trip up Democrats seeking to hold onto a job last held by a Republican when Vic Atiyeh won a second term 40 years ago.

Former Democratic State Senator Betsy Johnson of Columbia County turned in nominating petitions with over 48,000 signatures on Tuesday – more than twice the minimum needed to get on the Nov. 8 ballot as an unaffiliated candidate.

Secretary of State Shemia Fagan has until Aug. 30 to verify a random sampling of petition signatures in time to officially add Johnson to the general election alongside Democrat Tina Kotek of Portland and Republican Christine Drazan of Canby.

“The race sets up an unusual situation where the winner may not need to crack even 40%,” Kondik wrote.

Three candidates – and no “centrist” nomination

Much of the election debate has centered around who Johnson would most hurt, Kotek or Drazan.

All three served as late as last year in the legislative leadership. Kotek as House speaker, Drazan as House minority leader, and Johnson as a swing-vote Democrat and co-chair of the budget-writing Joint Ways & Means Committee. All left office early to run for governor – with Johnson also dropping her Democratic party affiliation of 20 years.

Adding to the scrambled election math is a decision by leaders of the Independent Party of Oregon – known as the IPO – to forego an alliance with one of the candidates.

“There will be no cross-nomination on this one,” Independent Party board member Andrew Kaza of Redmond said Thursday.

A cross-nomination by the self-described “centrist” Independent Party is often used by a candidate as symbolic of being the less partisan choice in a race.

So far in 2022, the Independent Party has cross-nominated 52 candidates for federal, state, and local offices. Cross-nominations were awarded to U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, and two Democratic candidates for open U.S. House seats: Terrebonne attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner in the 5th Congressional District and Rep. Andrea Salinas of Lake Oswego in the 6th district.

The Independent Party of Oregon has heavily favored cross-nominating Democrats in 2022. Still, Sen. Bill Kennemer, R-Oregon City, and Rep. Mark Owens, R-Vale, are among five GOP candidates to win the IPO nod.

Kaza said Independent Party leaders are free to announce their personal preferences. But no one in the governor’s race will be able to have the party’s identification added to their ballot line that a cross-nomination would allow.

The Center for Politics forecast said the undulating national political scene and three strong candidates was enough to put a question mark next to the Democrats’ historic win streak for the Oregon governorship.

“Outgoing Gov. Kate Brown (D) is deeply unpopular, and there may be some desire for change in the Beaver State,” Kondik wrote. “Johnson, the independent, would still be the most surprising winner, and Kotek and Drazan both will be working to try to prevent their voters from flocking to her banner.”

Two other major national forecasters — the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight — have previously moved the Oregon governor’s race from a likely Democratic win to the less certain leaning Democratic victory.

GOP misses early chance to end West Coast shutout

The Oregon election speculation came on the heels of Washington voters earlier this month ensuring the official end of a 56-year winning streak by Republicans for the office or Washington secretary of state.

The Aug. 2 Washington state primary cemented Democrats’ hold on every executive state office on the West Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington.

Kim Wyman, a Republican, won a third four-year term as Washington secretary of state in 2020, retaining the office held by the GOP since the 1964 election. In 2021, she resigned to accept an appointment by President Joe Biden to oversee federal election security efforts in Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee appointed Washington Sen. Steve Hobbs, a fellow Democrat, to the position.

“This is pretty surreal for me,” Hobbs said when sworn in last November.

What was surrealistic for Hobbs was infuriating to state Republicans. Unlike Oregon, Washington did not have a law requiring that the governor appoint a replacement from the same party.

GOP officials said the interruption in the line of Republicans in the office would be swiftly reversed with the special election in 2022 to fill out the remainder of Wyman’s term.

Washington uses a system that includes an open primary. The top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, would advance to the Nov. 8 general election.

Seven candidates, including three Republicans, ran against Hobbs in the primary.

Hobbs finished with 40% of the vote. In the scrum of others, unaffiliated candidate Julie Anderson finished second with 13%.

There would be no Republican on the ballot.

Anderson, the Pierce County auditor, would be the first secretary of state without a party affiliation to win the office since 1896.

Hobbs would be the first Democrat to hold the office since Victor Aloysius Meyers, described by the Seattle Times as a “former Depression-era jazz-band leader” lost his bid for a third term in 1964.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last statewide Republican officeholder in California, leaving office in 2011.

Secretary of State Dennis Richardson was the last Republican elected to statewide office in Oregon, winning the 2016 election, but dying in office in 2019.

Under Oregon law, Richardson’s replacement had to be from the same party, and Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat, appointed former House Speaker Bev Clarno of Redmond to fill out the remainder of the term.

Clarno did not seek election to a full term in 2020. Fagan, a Democratic state senator from Clackamas County defeated Sen. Kim Thatcher, R-Keizer.

How the historic trends and state shutouts and crumbling consensus plays out out in 2023 still has more than 11 weeks left to play out until the generation election on Nov. 8.