A freshman Republican from Oregon is one of the 20 members of Congress most vulnerable to defeat in 2024, according to a top national election forecast.

A freshman Democrat from the state is also facing a tough fight to hold on more than one term in office, the report says.

Though Oregon has only six of the 435 U.S. House seats in Congress, it has two of just 42 seats that are likely in play between Republicans and Democrats for who controls the chamber in 2024.

The analysis comes from The Cook Political Report, the oldest and still most influential of the national political forecasters.

U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, R-Happy Valley, is a “toss-up” to win a second term, according to the report. She flipped the 5th district that runs from Portland to Bend from Democratic to Republican. He victory in November was a key to flipping control of the House from Democrats to Republicans.

The GOP now holds a slim 222-212 majority, giving the party control of the chamber for the first time in four years. The U.S. Senate has a 51-49 Democratic majority.

None of the four seats held by Democrats in Oregon is rated as a “toss-up.” However, just across the Columbia River in Washington, freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wa., is rated as a toss-up to hold the formerly Republican seat she won in 2022.

The Cook Political Report senior analyst David Wasserman wrote that just 42 of the 435 seats can be seen as seriously in play to shift from one party to another. His count means less than 10% of House seats going into 2024 are up for grabs. The count includes the 20 toss-ups, plus 22 more “leaning” toward one party or another but well within reach of the right opponent.

“That’s fewer than the 52 races we rated as competitive at the start of the 2020 cycle, but more than the 24 races we rated as competitive at the outset of the 2016 cycle,” Wasserman said.

Among the “leaning” group is the seat of freshman Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Lake Oswego. While district demographics give Salinas a stronger chance at holding onto her seat than Chavez-DeRemer, she’ll need a strong, well-financed campaign to ensure she isn’t a one-termer in the newly drawn 6th district.

The other three current incumbents — Democrats Suzanne Bonamici of Beaverton and Earl Blumenauer of Portland and Republican Cliff Bentz of Ontario  — represent safe districts for their parties.

Until 2022, Oregon had returned a reliable election result every two years: four Democrats and one Republican would win the five congressional seats.

The dean of the delegation was U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Springfield, chair of the House Transportation Committee. 

The Oregon Legislature’s redistricting plan for 2022 drew claims from Republicans that it was drawn to ensure a 5-to-1 Democratic majority. The 5th district officially held by U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby, was radically redrawn to pull Democratic votes from the Portland area, run through some GOP-heavy areas, but then vault over the Cascades to sweep up the rapidly growing Democratic area around Bend in Deschutes County.

“Spreading out urban voters by having four districts that include portions of Portland is the very definition of gerrymandering,” Senate Republican Leader Fred Girod of Lyons 

Then-Rep. Daniel Bonham, R-The Dalles, a lead negotiator for GOP on redistricting, was more direct in his analysis of the outcome.

“We’ve been had,” he said.

But the strategy unraveled by May. DeFazio opted to retire and though his 4th district was redrawn to be more friendly to a Democratic candidate, it became an open seat. Schrader lost his bid for an 8th term in the Democratic primary. The new 6th district automatically had no incumbent.

Three new members of Congress were elected in Oregon in November.

In the 4th district, Democrat Val Hoyle won a comfortable 51% to 43% race against Republican Alek Skarlatos of Roseburg.

In the 6th, Salinas won 49.99% of the vote compared to 47.54% for Republican candidate Mike Erickson. Constitutional Party candidate Larry McFarland — whose platform draws voters to the right of most Republicans — won 2.3% of the vote. There were also 531 write-in votes. 

In the 5th, Chavez-DeRemer won the seat for the Republicans with just over 6,300 votes out of 316,000 cast.

Wasserman said both Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon and Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington will have to show their staying power in seats they flipped after facing candidates in the general election who had defeated incumbent U.S. House members in the primaries.

Chavez-DeRemer defeated progressive Terrebonne attorney Jaime McLeod-Skinner, who had knocked Schrader out of the primary.

Democrats argued over who “lost the 5th,” insurgent progressives who rejected Schrader in the primary or national Democrats who withheld key funds from McLeod-Skinner out of pique for her daring to run against a sitting congressman in the primary. In 2024, a flock of major Democrats is expected to line up to run in the 5th district. McLeod-Skinner’s supporters want her to run again, but she is also a finalist for the job of director of the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality. 

Gluesenkamp Perez, won her southwestern Washington district by defeating conservative Republican Joe Kent, an insurgent GOP candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump. U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, R-Wa., was one of ten Republicans who voted to impeach then-President Trump for his role in instigating the Jan. 6, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol.

Unlike Oregon, Washington has a form of open primary that advances the top two vote-getters to the general election, regardless of party. Gluesenkamp Perez finished first in the August voting, but Kent edged Hererra Beutler by just over 1,000 votes. Kent was a strong favorite to win the GOP-aligned district, but his backing of Trump’s hardline stances pushed Gluesenkamp Perez to an upset win, beating Kent by just under 3,000 votes out of nearly 320,000 cast. Republicans are expected to make a strong effort to retake the district with a candidate less tied to Trump.

Republicans point to Salinas winning just under 50% of the vote in the 6th district as a sign of possible vulnerability. A popular name being floated is 2022 GOP governor candidate Christine Drazan of Canby, who lost a close race to Gov. Tina Kotek. 

Because of a quirk in the U.S. Constitution, candidates for Congress do not have to live in the district where they are running, just the state. Chavez-DeRemer, Salinas and McLeod-Skinner lived outside of their districts when they ran. The constitution does not require a member to live in the district once elected. Chavez-DeRemer has opted to remain in her home in a portion of Clackamas County just outside the 5th district.